AFL - Round 11 preview

Seems like a relatively easy round to pick, this one, but what worries me is the number of away teams being chosen.  Something a little different this week too, figured I'd have a "match focus" with a bit more info about one game and less about all the others.

Now it strikes me that most of the Australian Rules Football group members are Lions supporters, and I acknowledge that in the past I've tended to give the team's matches more attention than others.  Barring vociferous objections, this is the way I'll keep it.  So let's have a look at...

Match Focus - Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers - Gabba - Sunday 1:10pm EST kickoff:

David's already picked up on a piece by Michael Voss about the Lions gearing up for a premiership.  This is something he actually first raised publicly in comments prior to the game against Carlton several weeks ago when asked about Travis Johnstone, and repeated again today -

The decision to trade for 27-year-old Travis Johnstone last November is undeniable proof. Otherwise they would not have given up a first-round draft pick for a player who won't be at the club in five years.

At the same website, Real Footy, Rohan Connolly also had this to say about Brisbane's improving backline a bit over a week and a half ago -    

But it's the Lions' alleged achilles heel, pre-season — their back line — which is providing perhaps the greatest eyebrow-raiser.

On paper, names like Daniel Merrett, Joel Patfull, Joel MacDonald, Jason Roe and Josh Drummond didn't inspire a heap of faith. The reality is proving anything but, a nice blend of defensive steel and, with Drummond's superb kicking skills, and Jarred Brennan's "x-factor", more than enough dash and creativity.

"X-Factor" indeed.  Brisbane are more than a good chance of beating Fremantle this week, which will make it four games on the trot and keep them in the bottom half of the eight.  But let's not get carried away here.  Only one of those wins will have been against "quality" opposition in a competition that's looking less socialist by the week. 

The next two weeks sees the Lions play the Western Bulldogs and Adelaide which will provide a much better indication of their September chances (assuming there are no significant injury concerns by then).  And looking even further ahead, the last five rounds of the season see them play the Kangaroos, Hawthorn, Bulldogs, Carlton and Sydney - all of which are eminently losable games and could cost the Lions momentum going into the finals.  You'd hate to see them playing Sydney for the final spot in the eight, for example.

As for Fremantle, well, I'm steadily working on my obsession with how useless they are after they once again disappointed me (and thousands of others) last weekend against Port. 

You see, somewhere there's a parallel universe where the Dockers didn't lose to Richmond at home in Round 4 and, even though they were beaten by Adelaide by a couple of goals at AAMI stadium the following week, rebounded well to beat the premiers Geelong by 1 point at Subiaco in Round 6.  In this parallel universe the the Dockers have turned into "fourth quarter specialists", showing the sort of steel that a first-year coach like Mark Harvey is thanking his lucky stars for while pundits try to determine just how he got it right.

Of course, in this parallel universe I'm also a multi-award winning performance artist known as Spanky McPhee with poetry-groupies calling themselves "Spankers".  Just like the daily musings of Dockers supporters, these are but idle dreams and fancies.  Brisbane to win by five goals.

To the remaining games:

Kangaroos v Geelong:  Couple of key forwards missing for North Melbourne (Thompson and Jones) while Geelong welcomes back a couple (Mooney and Chapman).  North will push them but Geelong should prevail.

Richmond v Adelaide:  Danger game for the Crows after a near-loss against Essendon at home last week in terribly slippery conditions.  No captain Kane Johnson for the Tigers but they welcome back Graham Polak and Greg Tivendale.  A win for the Crows on paper but Richmond might be ready for a trademark upset...

Essendon v Hawthorn:  The Hawks will be kicking themselves for a less than stellar performance against the Bulldogs last week, while Bombers fans are hoping that their showing against Adelaide can be continued into Saturday afternoon.  But of the two teams I expect the Hawks will be hungrier for redemption and to maintain their hold on a top two position. 

West Coast v Sydney:  Sydney have had a couple of memorable Subiaco wins in the past but their likely win here against the struggling Eagles probably won't have as much tension as previous games. 

St Kilda v Western Bulldogs:  Yet another season going off the rails for the Saints and, while they need desperately to win this game to make a statement to their fans at the very least, the Bulldogs are fresh off an excellent win against the Hawks in picturesque Launceston last Saturday arvo.  Bulldogs to win and then immediately start preparing for their game against Brisbane.

Port Adelaide v Carlton:  Port would have been full of confidence going into the final quarter of last week's game against Freo, and they should be able to maintain spirits with a win at home against an underwhelming (considering the talent) Blues side.  As I (and everyone else) keep(s) saying, the Blues defence isn't yet strong enough against teams with forward options and that should be the key issue again here with Port to run out the game as winners.

Melbourne v Collingwood:  Just when the Demons' season was already looking terrible, key position player Russell Robertson is now out for the rest of the year.  Magpies fans would have half an eye on upcoming collywobbles but they'll be right this weekend at least.  Next week's game against Carlton looms as being more dangerous for the Magpies.

Wow, long post.  Enjoy your footy this weekend.