AFL - Round 13 Preview

Looks like a few people were looking for upsets last week as I managed shoot back to the outright top in both comps.  I caught parts of the Western Bulldogs v Brisbane game on radio and yeah, I'm glad I didnae watch it on the tv.  Then Sunday I caught most of the Collingwood v Carlton game with that wonderful last quarter by Judd and co. stomping the Blues into the top eight. 

Interesting times.  Let's have a look at round 13:

St Kilda v Fremantle:  Well, the season's pretty much written off for both of these sides but they don't look the tanking type.  News for the Saints is the dropping of Nick Dal Santo and Stephen Milne for tonight's game with a few youngsters coming in too.  No changes to the Freo side that convincingly beat North Melbourne last Saturday arvo.  Freo doesn't have that great a record at the Dome, but if they're going to win one tonight is probably one of their better opportunities.  Maybe their confidence is improving too.  Again, there's an element of basic foolhardiness in tipping the Dockers but it worked last week so I'll be giving it another go.

Hawthorn v Kangaroos:  Some thought Franklin was lucky to get off with a reprimand for his bump in the Adelaide game but it didn't look that bad to me.  No Chance Bateman for them against the Roos which will be a blow, but North Melbourne have enough injury concerns of their own too.  I think they're unable to mount a convincing case that they can beat the Hawks tomorrow.

Port Adelaide v Richmond:   Hmm, the "chokers" tag would have to be weighing a least a little on the minds of the folk down at Port Adelaide this week, as ably noted by David a few days ago.  This is the sort of game that Richmond are likely to win but I'm sticking with the home team this time.  Tigers would be worth a punt if you're a gambler though.

Brisbane v Adelaide:  So a couple of weeks ago I wrote -

The next two weeks sees the Lions play the Western Bulldogs and Adelaide which will provide a much better indication of their September chances (assuming there are no significant injury concerns by then).

Brisbane are likely to be without Bradshaw, Roe and Leunberger, though Rischitelli and Copeland return along with debutante Tom Collier.  The loss of Bradshaw in particular hurts them.  Fact is they got well and truly thumped by the Bulldogs last week, with the key message from the side appearing to be about the "learning experience" gained from the loss (standard sort of stuff really).  

This week's match against 5th placed Adelaide will be another hard test, and to be honest I don't think they're up to it.  Bookies are against me and it's probably the roughie of the week, but I'll be tipping the Crows to win (while inwardly hoping the Lions prevail).  

[Update Friday evening]:  No Johnstone, no Sherman for Brisbane tomorrow night.  Get your money on Adelaide while you can. 

West Coast v Geelong:  The Eagles almost beat the Cats earlier in the season but since then the fortunes of the two sides have gone in opposite directions.  Barring disaster it'll be another win for Geelong.

Melbourne v Sydney:  This one's in Canberra but to be frank I've got better things to do than to see what should be a pretty crap game, especially if you're a Demons supporter.  And in a flash of brilliance, the match is being shown live into Canberra on free to air tv which should just do wonders for the attendance figures.  Which will then no doubt contribute to even fewer games coming here.  Despite the cold it's a good venue to watch the footy at, that I'll happily attest to.  Sydney to win this match by miles.

Carlton v Essendon:  This should be a good game, one worth watching.  Carlton are really starting to come together as a team and Judd continues to demonstrate the ability to nearly single-handedly bend a game to his will like great players can (as per his second half against Collingwood last weekend).  The Bombers thumped them earlier in the year but I think they'll have the better of them this time. 

Collingwood v Western Bulldogs:  Here come the Collywobbles.  The Magpies look to be without three key players in Cloke, Davis and Fraser while there are no such problems for the Bulldogs.  The "Sons of the West" should have a good game here and win by around seven or eight goals.  Easy.

Tipping a number of away teams here which is always a bit of a worry, but it should be right.  Enjoy your footy this weekend.