AFL tipping - round 4 - no upsets please chaps...

Well, I did the right thing last round by sticking with Brisbane and Hawthorn but didn't expect Carlton to be overrun by the Bombers (damn those uppity red and black so and so forths) and also should really have changed my tip away from a certain West Australian team (rhymes with "fockers" as in "those stupid bloody purple-wearing fockers").  But anyway, I'm still subject to week 2 of a four week self-imposed ban, aren't I? 

This week appears to present an easier state of affairs, and barring disaster I expect it to be merely a case of margin in deciding who leads at the conclusion of the round.  So here we go:

Brisbane v Collingwood:  T'was most excellent to see some of the second tier players like Patfull, Drummond and Proud starting to step up in the Lions win against Sydney last Saturday night, though as a fellow watcher remarked could someone please help Travis Johnston with his kicking?  Rocca returns for Collingwood, which means he'll hang around the goal square all night getting marked by Merrett until kicking a boomer from 60 metres out and busting his hamstring.  Or he'll kick 8 and win the game.  He's that kinda guy.  I'm tipping Brisbane given they have a good recent record against them.

Hawthorn v Port Adelaide:  Hawthorn were another team that had some previously underrated players step up in their strong win over the Kangaroos last Sunday.  Hit up with a bout of gastro I caught most of the game while lying on the couch feeling sorry for myself and enjoyed what I saw.  Port, on the other hand, appear to have a disciplinary problem having lost a couple of key players (Cassisi and Burgoyne) due to foolish infractions.  Hawks easily here.

Sydney v Carlton: Can't help thinking that a couple of stupid free kicks against Carlton right in front of goal cost them the game against Essendon, but they should be right here against a Sydney team that kind of looks a little demoralised at the moment.  But if there's one game this weekend that I'm a little unsure about, it's this one.  An 85% confident tip for the Blues.

Adelaide v Geelong: Cats will be fine here playing the Crows at AAMI Stadium, I'm starting to think that I'm guilty of under-rating Adelaide pretty consistently (thinking back to last season here as well) but oppositions don't get much tougher than Geelong at the moment.

St Kilda v Fremantle:  Saints to win and I'll shut up about the other mob.

North Melbourne v Essendon:  Matthew Lloyd, welcome back (though I say this without any affection at all, merely respect as a fan of the game).  No Daniel Wells for North this week which means that they'll lack that extra bit of unpredictability that might otherwise make this game a harder consideration.  The Bombers seem pretty keen on making sure that they're not completely written out of final eight contention and should be ok here.

Richmond v Melbourne:  Big problems, massively huge problems, for Tigers coach Terry Wallace should they not win this game on Sunday arvo.  Word came out this morning that Mick Malthouse is possibly on the radar for the Tigers next year should he not stay with Collingwood, but I reckon they'd be better off looking elsewhere.  Richmond to win.

West Coast v Western Bulldogs:  It's the second trip to Subiaco in about a month for the Bulldogs which is enabling them to fly under the radar a little.  Keep an eye on 'em I say.  The wide open spaces of Subiaco Oval won't present too many problems for them and they'll be right to overcome the Eagles in the evening game.

That's it for this week, Go Lions, have a great weekend.