14 posts tagged “election 2007”

The transcript of last night's interesting - though predictable - Four Corners program can be found here, with further references and reading here.

Why predictable?  Well, it was to be expected that Costello would disavow any blame for how things turned out.  If he'd had any ticker he would have challenged in 2006, gone to the backbench and waited for the polls to go bad for Howard, then have gone for the leadership.  Might not have worked, but the way things turned out makes him a great Australian political sulker.  A big sook, in other words, forever condemned to tell all and sundry that "things woulda been different if only the party had picked me like I thought". 

What was interesting, however, was the very careful and considered way that Joe Hockey presented his version of events.  I thought his responses were crafted with one eye on the future - see what he said about Workchoices, for example:

LIZ JACKSON: A new Minister for Workplace Relations was appointed to repair some of the damage done. Joe Hockey’s problem was that under the new laws, some people would be losers.

JOE HOCKEY: Quite frankly when I took over the job I don’t think many ministers in Cabinet were aware that you could be worse off under WorkChoices and that you could actually have certain conditions taken away without compensation. And once I started to raise those issues with colleagues and they became more informed of the impact of WorkChoices we introduced the fairness test.

LIZ JACKSON (To Joe Hockey): You’re saying to me that Cabinet colleagues were unaware that you could be worse off?

JOE HOCKEY: Some were, yeah, yep.

LIZ JACKSON (To Joe Hockey): Care to name them?

JOE HOCKEY: No, not really! (Laughs) Not really!

...as well as his later statements about loyalty and being upfront with Howard about the need for him to move on for the good of the Government.

At the end of the program I was speaking to K about how 2007 was such a politically interesting year.  After the election I sort of felt as though I'd gotten it all out of my system, with the compulsive reading of all political blogs and analysis I was undertaking every single day.  The seat by seat analysis and commentary I quickly wrote up one afternoon and posted here must have been the saturation point.  Saturday night was the first time I'd sat down and drifted through places like Blogocracy, Club Troppo and Larvatus Prodeo for months, and since the election I think I've sort of started to trust my own views and analysis of political moves just a little more as time goes on. 

Well, it's been a couple of days now, but prior to making one or two comments I'd like to publicly state how sorry I am to have learned of the death of Matt Price on Sunday morning.  Mark Day's column last Thursday in The Australian highlighted how Price's keen perception and sense of humour had been sorely missed during the six weeks of the official election campaign. 

I admired Price for his dogged support of Freo as much as anything else, but when I was reading The Australian regularly his column was one I could always rely upon for insight without some of the baggage that other writers for the paper have (e.g. Shanahan, Adams, Milne, Albrechtson etc).  Over the past year I sort of got the sense that he was setting himself up to be a younger, funnier Paul Kelly, but now we'll never get to know.  I'm tremendously sad at his passing, and will also miss his appearances on the ABC's Insiders programme.

But to the result - it appears that my prediction of a two-party preferred vote of 53.something% and a majority of 24 seats over the Coalition (not counting the two independents) is turning out to be pretty accurate.  Still a few more results to be confirmed, not the least of which is Bennelong, but my highlighting of seats like Forde, Dawson, Page and Corangamite appears to have been on the money.  Not about to proclaim myself Vox King of Psephing or anything though as there were enough other remarkable results to throw such simple predictions in the shade (e.g. former Minister Brough losing Longman).

Personally, I'm happy to see Howard lose, though I think I have a little more compassion than Paul Keating expressed in his interview on the ABC yesterday.  In the end, Howard and the Liberal/National coalition got the result they deserved.  It was really interesting to talk to a friend in the Bennelong electorate on Sunday and hear that a few long-time Liberal supporters would have changed their vote as a result of the fiasco perpetrated by Messrs Kelly and Chijoff in Lindsay last week - that, for me, says it all, and is also something I find a little reaffirming. 

But now, the future.  Lots of challenges ahead for this Government, and so I'm looking forward to easing off any commentary I may make about politics for a while in preference, perhaps, for straight out policy analysis instead.  Though realistically it's always difficult to separate the two.  At the very least, I really should get back to "dadstuff" posting instead.

I didn't expect to enjoy writing up my thoughts on the various seats as much as I did.  Funny too, how since staying at home I had thought that I wasn't as engaged in political analysis as much as when I was working, but I think I've still managed to pick up on a few things about the place.

I said back on October 14 that I was predicting a win by the "...ALP by 24 seats with a two-party preferred vote of 53.something%" which is firmly in landslide territory and probably won't happen.  But it's partly based on a belief I have that the swing to the government at the last election had a little bit of an anti-Latham element to it which Rudd has countered this time around for the ALP.  A lot of those Liberal margins are artificial methinks, and that's why there are notionally safe seats with 8% plus numbers that have been getting regular attention from Howard and Rudd over the past year or so.

And yeah, it's been nearly a year for this campaign, realistically.  Terrible.  I was so bored in the beginning and it's really only in the final week or so, getting to see things like Howard's likely final interview with Kerry O'Brien last night and various conservative commentators starting to run their lines about the post-election landscape, that I've sort of perked up. 

On the evening itself, K and I will be paying respects to her family's election eve fish and chip tradition before I run over to a friend's place to play the electoral geek at a party they're having.  As of last night/this morning, we've started getting The Boy into a decent sleeping routine (no wakeups between 9:35pm and 4:35am!) and we don't want to take any chances by taking him out to a party.  Shall see how it goes - whatever you do, whomsoever you're cheering for, have a good one - and be sure to keep an eye on things online at the AEC's website where they'll be updating the live count as it all happens with all kinds of whizbangery.  That's it from me about the election until Sunday at the earliest.

Polls have generally indicated that Labor isn’t doing as well across New South Wales as compared to the rest of the nation, which might be partly attributed to the sheer bumbling incompetence and general schmuckery (yes, I’m sure that’s an actual word) of their State level counterparts.  Still, there’s a number of very intriguing battles here – and let’s start with the big one:

Bennelong

Regardless of what happens in Bennelong between Prime Minister Howard and Elaine-from-Seinfeld-style-dancer Maxine McKew, or what the overall outcome of the election is, the ALP’s decision to put her up against Howard in this seat should be regarded as one of the key tactical moves of the whole campaign (noting that the campaign started long before the election was actually called).

Bennelong has had a number of demographic changes over time, and despite Howard’s development of close links with the chinese community it still appears as though he’s a little out of touch, particularly with the newer parts that have come in as the result of a recent redistribution.  I’m hoping to consult with a friend “on the ground” in the electorate in the next couple of days about what the feeling is. 

Eden-Monaro

Ah, Eden-Monaro.  The bellwether seat.  Cut-and-paste Liberal politician (and ex-Northern Territorian) Gary Nairn versus “the best moustache in politics 2007” Mike Kelly, with the latter currently favoured to win by both pollsters and punters.  May be interesting to see if Gary Nairn’s chief of staff, Peter “I’ve also featured on Media Watch” Phelps, has a bit of a public dummy spit somewhere in the event of a loss.   

Lindsay

Prime Ministerial favourite and seat incumbent Jackie Kelly is retiring at this election, so this factor plus the 2.9% margin for a seat in Sydney’s western mortgage belt makes this a key one for both parties.  Liberal candidate Karen Chijoff has been working the seat hard, with ALP resources for David “Third time lucky?” Bradbury apparently only coming in recently from headquarters. 

[update 22/11]  Well, I'm sure everyone knows what happened here, so it'd have to truly be a write-off for the Liberal Party now.   

Macarthur

Liberal incumbent and former ultra-marathon runner Pat Farmer probably has the most laid-back drawl in Australian politics, but word is it’s only reflecting his actual speed of thought with the minder job for Pat one of the more unenviable up at Parliament House.  Having said that, Farmer’s a pretty genuine sort of bloke who works his electorate hard, with a story doing the rounds about how he rocked up to a constituent’s place with a toolbox to help them with a plumbing problem they’d had a whinge to him about. 

It’s another seat on the western outskirts of Sydney that despite the healthy 11.2% margin could still be considered to be in play by the ALP, who are running tradie Anthony Bleasdale, but I think Farmer will retain this without too much damage to his overall vote.   

Page

A tale of two cities here, with Page encompassing regional growth centres Lismore and Grafton, as well as smaller coastal centres like Ballina (and all the young families and sea-changers that have been migrating to places like this across the country for the past several years). 

Held by the Nationals with a 5.5% margin, the retirement of Ian Causley and a good ALP candidate in Janelle Saffin makes this seat worth mentioning.  Could also be Greens preferences in this one I’d suggest, just based on my own gut feeling about the communities in Lismore and on the coast. 

Richmond

Marginal ALP at 1.4% but this will increase for the incumbent Justine Elliot.  Formerly held by the National Party’s Larry Anthony until the 2004 election, it was taken over the line for the ALP by Green preferences – who polled a pretty healthy 12.4% of primary votes in 2004.  I reckon this will be up around the same mark or higher again this time for the Greens, with Richmond encompassing developing coastal communities akin to those mentioned for Page above.  Could be a bit of dissatisfaction with both major parties but the ALP should retain it relatively easily.

North Sydney

I mention Joe Hockey’s seat, held by a comfortable 10% margin, just in passing as it’ll be interesting to see if any electoral dissatisfaction with Workchoices translates into a vote against the incumbent.  Realistically the ALP’s Mike Bailey has little chance but I wouldn’t be surprised if the seat became much more marginal – say, down to 3-4% – after this poll.

Wentworth

Well.  Where does one start?  How funny was the whole Caroline Overington element in the campaigning for this seat (excellent summary at the link provided).  The margin of 2.5% for the Liberals is deceptive thanks to the running of former incumbent Peter King in 2004 which would have split the Liberal vote.  So, despite all the guff from the likes of Geoffrey Cousins and Danielle “taking whatever publicity I can get until I score a Ralph cover” Ecuyer, the ALP’s “short, dark and Jewish” candidate of George Newman will probably be unsuccessful.  But, Gerard Henderson style, I’ll cover myself by saying you just never know, thanks largely to the unpredictability of the pulp mill issue and the impact of Greens preferences. 

If Turnbull is knocked out then perhaps we’ll see him as a NSW Liberal Premier in several years’ time.  That’s my tip anyway.

Honourable mentions -  could be interesting results also in Paterson, Robertson and Parramatta.

Next and finally - concluding thoughts and observations...

Interesting, interesting, interesting, and, along with several seats in South Australia, absolutely key to the ALP’s chances of winning government.  Let’s start with the seats that were involved in the whole “Printgate” thing a little while ago –

Moreton

Held by former Vocational and Technical Education Minister Gary Hardgrave, Moreton has a margin of 2.8% thanks in part to a recent redistribution bringing in tolling booths that used to belong to the safe Labor seat of Rankin.  On the face of things, this seat should be won by the ALP’s Graham Perrett this time around.  Word is that the seat has scored the nickname of “Five After Six” which indicates the time we’ll know it’s been won by Labor (hat-tip to Crikey.com.au for this snippet of information).

Bonner

A margin of just 0.5% to the Liberals’ Ross Vasta makes Bonner one of the most marginal seats in the country.  Like his colleagues, hasn’t exactly come up smelling of roses in the investigation into the possible misuse of parliamentary printing allowances.  Should be won by the ALP on the Queensland parochial factor for Rudd alone and then some. 

Bowman

Big margin of 8.9% to Andrew Laming of the Liberals, but another one considered to be quite contestable by the major parties.  I get the feeling that the “union bosses” line might work for the Liberals in this electorate, noting especially the background of the ALP candidate (and former ETU official) Jason Young.  Probably not so many mortgagees here either, so the interest rates issue mightn’t have as much traction.  So my assessment is that I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s retained by the Liberals with a reduced margin of around 2-3%. 

Ryan

I just mention Ryan as I simply don’t rate the Liberal member Michael Johnson.  He will probably suffer a drop in support in what is generally a solidly Liberal demographic thanks to both a local issue (a road bypass into Brisbane cutting through the electorate) and several visits from Kevin Rudd.  The 10.4% margin should be enough to see him through, but gee I’d like to see him go, noting that he’d probably slip into Queensland state politics and engage in shenanigans there instead.

Forde

Very safe Liberal seat with a 11.5% margin but this could be a bit of a wild card in this poll.  Sitting member Kay Elson is retiring at this election and I think this seat is really on the table.  Both the Nationals and Liberals have candidates which will split the conservative vote plus the electorate picks up the aspirationals and tradies in Tanah Merah (from Rankin) who I believe are quite inclined to listen to the ALP about interest rates and Workchoices.  I feel as though the Latham factor in 2004 also had a bit to do with inflating the current margin so Forde is one to keep an eye on.

Herbert

Safe Liberal at 6.2% for incumbent Peter Lindsay with a high proportion of defence voters thanks to the presence of Lavarack Barracks (where, as childhood memories attest, Santa shows up in a chopper every Christmas). 

Another seat that’s been visited several times over the past year by both Howard and Rudd, it’ll give a good early indication as to how tight things may be for Labor in Queensland.  ALP candidate George Colbran has been running hard and would have to be in with a good chance. 

Dawson

A traditionally National Party seat with a margin of 10% neat for sitting member De-Anne Kelly.  Kelly has always had a high profile in the electorate but word is that the ALP should make some ground in this nominally conservative seat, so one just mentioned out of passing interest.

Rankin

I’ve got some personal association with Rankin which is why, perhaps selfishly, I’m mentioning it, but it will be interesting to see how the predicted Queensland swing to the ALP is reflected in this seat which has a mix of your traditional “working and welfare class” in the middle around Logan Central and Browns Plains, and the “aspirationals” both in the east of the seat over Shailer Park/Springwood way and in the west out at Boronia Heights and Forestdale.  There should be an increase in the current 3% margin for sitting member Craig Emerson at this poll.

Next - New South Wales...

As promised, next we have South Australia, Victoria and Tasmania...

South Australia

Along with Queensland is expected to do well for the ALP.  Let’s take a look at some of the key contests:

Boothby

Imported ALP candidate Nicole Cornes has been criticised for her lack of media savvy, but it looks like she’s been trying to make up for this by working the electorate hard in an effort to overcome the 5.4% margin of Liberal incumbent Dr Andrew Southcott.  There are conflicting views across the range of psephs and political analysts about how Cornes will go, so it’s simply a case of watching the numbers come in on the night. 

Kingston

A margin of just 0.1% means you’d have to think that this seat is gone for the Liberals at this poll, with incumbent Kym Richardson losing to ALP candidate Amanda Rishworth. 

Makin

Quite marginal for the Liberals at 0.9% and the loss of prominent small-l Liberal Trish Draper, retiring from the seat at this election.  ALP candidate, personal trainer and former national power-lifting champion Tony Zappia is contesting the seat for the second time and looks set to give Liberal Pat Farmer a challenge for the “fittest member of Parliament” title (with Tony Abbot probably coming a punchy third).

Wakefield

Like Makin, Wakefield is another very marginal seat for the Liberals with David Fawcett holding on by just 0.7% at the 2004 election, so it’s quite likely to be lost to the ALP’s Nick Champion despite hard work across the electorate on Fawcett’s part. 

Adelaide

Currently held by up-and-comer Kate Ellis (keep an eye out for her on Ministerial benches in around 4 years’ time) by 1.3%, this margin should increase significantly for her should recent polls of the electorate be considered genuine.

Hindmarsh

Another marginal ALP seat (0.1%) that should be returned with an increased vote for sitting member and long-time local Steve Georganas.

Sturt

Currently held by Minister for Sneering Derisively, the Hon. Christopher Pyne MP, Sturt apparently has the second highest proportion of elderly voters in the nation (and a resultant margin of a safe 6.8%).  You’d have to expect that he’d be returned but gee, it’s another seat where you’d like the incumbent to get a scare (as per my comments for the Queensland seat of Ryan).

Mayo

Speaking of Sneering Derisively, the same comments hold true for our Francophile Foreign Minister Alexander Downer (“…no, don’t applaud, it’s not worth clapping…”).  A healthy margin of 13.8% means there’s bugger all chance of him losing his seat but his comments on the night, particularly the likelihood of a stringent personal attack against Rudd, put him in with a chance of winning the “Cheryl Kernot Memorial Award for Best Election Night Dummy Spit” from viewers who enjoy that sort of thing.

Victoria

Only a few mentions for Victorian seats as to me there’s not a whole lot of interest there.  Half-hearted apologies to any southern readers for what I’m sure you regard to be an outrageous slur. 

La Trobe

Former Victorian copper Jason Wood holds La Trobe with a 5.8% margin coming up against ALP candidate and 2005 Victorian of the Year Rodney Cocks.  Both have had numerous visits from respective major party leaders, with the ALP considered to be have a good shot at winning this seat which apparently has a few interest rate sensitivities amongst constituents (just based on a story about the seat recently heard on ABC Radio National’s The World Today programme). 

Corangamite

70 year old Stewart McArthur contests this seat for the eighth time, seemingly unwearied and as committed to the electorate as ever.  Wouldn’t surprise me though if he leaves in the event that he holds his seat and the Liberals lose.  I’ve got no real basis for this statement, it’s just a personal opinion. 

The ALP candidate is CPSU organiser Darren Cheeseman, and you’d have to think he’s got a big job up against a well-established and long-serving member in Mr McArthur, but if there’s a swing on, and it’s a big one, then Corangamite is definitely in play as a possible ALP gain.

Higgins

Treasurer Costello’s seat, mentioned only to see how Australia’s most unsuccessful candidate, Crikey.com.au founder Stephen Mayne, fares against him.

Tasmania

Am I the only one who thinks it’d be worth floating the idea of constitutional amendment to reduce the number of seats that Tasmania has in the House of Reps?  And don’t get me started on the Senate – 12 Senators for a population akin to that of Canberra’s.  Bleh.   

Bass

Key seat for the ALP to win, with a 2.6% margin to the Liberals’ Michael Ferguson likely to be eroded thanks to the pulp mill (with the Greens probable primary vote winners) and a strong local profile for the ALP candidate, Jodie Campbell.  Note that there’s no Latham/forestry policy factor this time around which should work in the ALP’s favour at this poll.

Braddon

Despite the ongoing uncertainty about the exact details of funding arrangements for the Commonwealth’s takeover of the Mersey Hospital (which also might explain the number of glum faces you see down near the Health Department offices in Woden), the ALP’s candidate (and former member) Sid Sidebottom is favoured to overcome the 1.1% margin of sitting Liberal member Mark Baker. 

And check out the odds over at Centrebet - $1.10 for an ALP win here.  Could be an acceptable return if you’re after a reasonable short-term investment option, though there are probably better punts to be had elsewhere in this election contest.

Next - Queensland...

Right then.  So yesterday I spent a little while writing up a 3,200 word tract of analyses of a number of seats that I think will be interesting to keep an eye on come Saturday evening during the vote coverage, and then sent it out to a bunch of friends and acquaintances.  Most of it's been sourced from Antony Green's excellent site at the ABC.  I'll start with the ACT, WA and the NT first and then go through the other states in subsequent posts. 

The two electorates are generally pretty safe for Labor so attention turns to the Senate instead, with many Canberrans enjoying the minor glow of being associated with anything remotely marginal.  Forks out for pork and all that.   

Anyway, you would have to think that Kerrie Tucker is a real chance here.  Those dodgy leaflets and lots of ads featuring Senator Humphries’ forced grin out the front of Gungahlin town centre give the impression that the Liberals are genuinely worried about losing.  I understand that every other candidate has preferenced him last as well, in a very left-leaning list.  There’s not even your Fred Nile-type to put last under the line this time. 

Hopefully we’ll get an idea reasonably quickly as to where things stand, perhaps even on the night.  In other news, turns out Margo Kingston of “Not Happy, John” meme fame has been working for Tucker and recently got down and dirty with the locals over at rowdy blog the RiotACT.  Shenanigans!

Western Australia

Has always been considered a bit of a stronghold for the Liberals thanks to the resources boom and problems for the ALP at the state level.  A recent tip given to Crikey.com.au about The West Australian newspaper not publishing a commissioned opinion poll showing positive signs for Labor in the state, however, has got me thinking that maybe it’s not as solid as the Libs would like to think.

Brand

Kim Beazley leaves the scene to hand over to former ALP national president (and Woodside Petroleum lobbyist in East Timor) Gary Gray.  Held by Labor with a 4.7% margin and should be retained again this time.  Note the possible piratical aspects of the candidate with Gyar Grya, Ygra Ryga, and Agry Aygr as other potential anagrams.

Cowan

The popular Graham Edwards is retiring at this election, so this factor combined with a small 0.8% margin for the ALP and possibly stronger Liberal support across the state means that this could be a win by Luke Simpkins for the Liberal Party.  But by the time the figures start coming in from the west you’d have to think that there’s little chance of votes being considered crucial given results in other parts of the country by that stage.  Still, you’d have to think that our western friends would be pretty proud of themselves if they got one over us easterners by winning government for one party or the other.

Stirling

Another interesting seat for the Liberals, with a margin of 2% for sitting member Michael Keenan to be overcome by former soldier Major Peter Tinley (ret’d) for the ALP.  Keenan apparently has a good profile in the electorate which might be enough to get him over the line barring some sort of pro-Rudd/ALP swing more generally in WA.

Swan

Another marginal seat in the West for the ALP with Peter Wilkie holding Swan by just 0.1%.  Featured recently with a speech by Howard decrying the ALP’s IR policies and stating that there’s no reason why the rather spiffing resources boom can’t carry on forever and ever and ever and ever and all that.  Which in turn brought a rebuke by former member for Swan and PM Bob “check out my groooovy blue pants” Hawke.

So.  Anyway.  Could be a loss for the ALP, but I reckon Wilkie will hold it, especially if Hawkie shows up to add a little sartorial splendour to aid his efforts in the electorate.

Northern Territory

Last but not least, let’s look at just the one seat in the Northern Territory of real interest –

Solomon

Held by Dave Tollner for the Country Liberals with a 2.8% margin, he’s up against popular local footy coach Damian Hale for the ALP. 

You might have heard of him getting a punch in the head from Collingwood player Chris Tarrant at a Darwin night spot earlier this year.  And now he’s a good chance of getting into Parliament, so you’d be advised to watch yourself at the Grail boys and girls, though let’s face it he’s probably more of a Kingo sorta bloke anyway. 

I love the Territory throwing up candidates like this, though to his credit he’s been running hard across the electorate and has had the support of a few visits from Rudd.  Largely insignificant in the national mix in comparison to the other states but worth a mention nonetheless.

Next - South Australia and Victoria...

Glad to see the election finally called, the faux campaigning since Rudd's ascension to the ALP leadership has been really irritating.  Here are a bunch of links to where I'll be watching things:

The ABC's Election site - with the analysis of the excellent Antony Green

Other psephs:

Mumble - Peter Brent, who also contributes occasionally to Crikey

OzPolitics - Bryan Palmer

Possum Pollytics - relatively new to the online psephology scene but some analysis done of leaked internal Liberal party polling really put possum on the map

and The Poll Bludger.

Other online sources of news and analysis:

Larvatus Prodeo - centre-left out of Brisbane, covering other stuff as well

Blogocracy - Tim Dunlop from inside the News Ltd tent

Road to Surfdom

The Bartlett Diaries - can I just say that it would be a shame to see Bartlett lose his Senate position in Queensland

and Club Troppo

Stacks of links available to other places at each of these sites.

Plus there's the Sydney Morning Herald,. the Age and The Australian's (though for me they still can't shake the "Government Gazette" tag).

So I'm going to stick my neck out here and give my tip for the result, to be mocked when it all goes pear-shaped:

ALP by 24 seats with a two-party preferred vote of 53.something%.

Quick summary around the place of yesterday's events, paper by paper, blog by blog.  An interesting illustration of just how crazy things can get.

The Australian

• Dennis Shanahan's piece on how it all unfolded
• Matt price yesterday and today
• Paul Kelly

Fairfax (SMH and The Age)

• Peter Hartcher
• Michelle Grattan
• Annabel Crabb

Blogs

• Blogocracy
• Club Troppo
• Larvatus Prodeo
• Crikey

This is probably one of the best pieces of political analysis I've read anywhere all year - Possums Pollytics, online psephologist, goes through the leaked Crosby-Textor polling about the Coalition Government's fortunes.

Now there's a whole lot of guff out there at the moment about the election being called shortly, with a bit of spin about it being a "circuit breaker".  Likely scenario, having checked out next week's Parliamentary legislative programme (whereby the Government is clearly trying to clear the decks and rush through any outstanding matters), is that he'll call it Wednesday or Thursday afternoon and the writs will be issued either on the weekend or Monday the 17th.

[Update 10th 9pm - saw Howard on the 7:30 Report saying that Parliament would sit this week and next]

And this is worth noting - calling the election and then delaying a couple of days before the houses are dissolved means that the Government gets the advantage of this weird "twilight time" where they basically get the departments to finalise likely election measure costings, plus all other kinds of interesting things that operate in that grey "is it apolitical or not" area.  Let me know if that doesn't make sense and I'll explain it further.

So I said a while ago that I figured it would be called for October 20, but I'm now hoping against that date as I'll be up north to see one of my sisters getting married.  So if it's on that Saturday then I'll be the one at the reception with a radio in my ear and running off occasionally to see the televised coverage, 

The advantage of October 20 for the incumbent government is that it's before the next inflation figures are released by the ABS.  If there's any kind of chance that inflation's looking dodgy, then, in conjunction with last week's strong growth figures, that part of the campaign is focussed upon the likely decision of the Reserve Bank to increase interest rates.  Which the Coalition would probably not prefer.  Here's how it sort of lays out:

           October 20 - possible election date;

           October 24 - September quarter indexation figures released.  If the election hasn't been called then the commentary's likely to be focussed on the likelihood of a rates rise until either

           October 27 - as a possible election date; or

           November 03 - as a possible election date.

Then on November 06 (Melbourne Cup Day) the Reserve Bank Board meets.  The next day they announce their decision.  The next available date is November 10, but the Coalition probably doesn't want to take the chance of holding the poll so soon after a likely interest rate rise.  If they were to go late, then they'd want to go as late as possible to get their message out after the Reserve Bank's decision - so that'd probably be Dec 01 or 08.  Having said that, there's a big risk of election fatigue (if, indeed, that hasn't already set in with the voting public), so the later they go the more chance there is that voters are so sick and tired of it all that they vote ALP out of sheer pissed-offedness.  For want of a better word.

So, realistically, it's either October 20th, October 27th or November 3rd.  But hopefully we'll know by the end of this week.