42 posts tagged “footy”

Haven't been arsed to do the weekly tips column of late as I've just been too busy (e.g. writing this on a mental break from studying legal articles about government contracting) so thought I'd attempt some discussion through an open thread.  Some topics for consideration:

• Our northern hemisphere friends may like to ask "what's it all about anyway?" and/or "what makes Australian Rules football so different from other sports"?  or even more contentiously "what the hell is meant by the 'holding the ball' rule?".
• Essendon confounded expectations by beating 2008 premiers Hawthorn by 44 points last night.  Does this mean the Hawks are out of it or are they likely to finish the season strongly?  What about the Bombers - are they genuine finals contenders?
• Should the AFL stick to its plan to expand into western Sydney or stick to what could be a "safer" market through the option presented by the Tasmanian government and vocal Taswegian supporters? 

Just... just don't pay attention to my tips.  I mean last week was simply a disaster, with my lowest score in a few years.  There I was, thinking it was all pretty straightforward, so the universe goes and gives me a right kick up the arse and tells me to pay attention, or don't, or develop a randomised method of tipping and do that instead, or work out a complicated system involving the cats somehow, or whatever.  Dammit.  Pushed me from 2nd to 13th in one comp and kept me in second in the other with fellow tipsters catching up markedly. 

So I'm going to keep this simple and not put so much effort into the analysis given it's likely at least three of them will be proved wrong:

Port Adelaide v St Kilda:  Saints are due for a win and Port can't beat a top four team twice in a row.

Essendon v Collingwood:  Good win for the Pies last week to get them back into some kind of form, should get the win in tomorrow's big game.

Hawthorn v West Coast:  Tasmania, cranky Hawks chastened after being beaten by Port, inconsistent Eagles, Hawthorn to win.

North Melbourne v Richmond:  5 losses in a row for the Tigers I reckon despite Mark Coughlan's return.  Wallace won't go till the end of the season.

Fremantle v Sydney Swans:  God help me, I'm tipping the Dockers.  Lord ha'mercy on dis poah, deluded boy etc etc.  Sydney like the tight spaces of the SCG but the wide open spaces of Subiaco Oval aren't so amenable.

Geelong v Brisbane:  No ruckmen, no chance for the Lions against the Premiership favourites, especially at Kardinia Park.

Western Bulldogs v Carlton:  No Akermanis or Cooney for the Bulldogs versus a Blues team looking to make amends for a clumsy loss against Sydney last week.

Melbourne v Adelaide:  The Demons needed the win, albeit against the Tigers, but won't be able to overcome the Crows.

Ok, so I'm seeing at least four games there that could go the other way.  Which is why I never bet on football.  Enjoy your weekend, and I trust you'll spare a thought for our veterans tomorrow.

Well, I did the right thing last round by sticking with Brisbane and Hawthorn but didn't expect Carlton to be overrun by the Bombers (damn those uppity red and black so and so forths) and also should really have changed my tip away from a certain West Australian team (rhymes with "fockers" as in "those stupid bloody purple-wearing fockers").  But anyway, I'm still subject to week 2 of a four week self-imposed ban, aren't I? 

This week appears to present an easier state of affairs, and barring disaster I expect it to be merely a case of margin in deciding who leads at the conclusion of the round.  So here we go:

Brisbane v Collingwood:  T'was most excellent to see some of the second tier players like Patfull, Drummond and Proud starting to step up in the Lions win against Sydney last Saturday night, though as a fellow watcher remarked could someone please help Travis Johnston with his kicking?  Rocca returns for Collingwood, which means he'll hang around the goal square all night getting marked by Merrett until kicking a boomer from 60 metres out and busting his hamstring.  Or he'll kick 8 and win the game.  He's that kinda guy.  I'm tipping Brisbane given they have a good recent record against them.

Hawthorn v Port Adelaide:  Hawthorn were another team that had some previously underrated players step up in their strong win over the Kangaroos last Sunday.  Hit up with a bout of gastro I caught most of the game while lying on the couch feeling sorry for myself and enjoyed what I saw.  Port, on the other hand, appear to have a disciplinary problem having lost a couple of key players (Cassisi and Burgoyne) due to foolish infractions.  Hawks easily here.

Sydney v Carlton: Can't help thinking that a couple of stupid free kicks against Carlton right in front of goal cost them the game against Essendon, but they should be right here against a Sydney team that kind of looks a little demoralised at the moment.  But if there's one game this weekend that I'm a little unsure about, it's this one.  An 85% confident tip for the Blues.

Adelaide v Geelong: Cats will be fine here playing the Crows at AAMI Stadium, I'm starting to think that I'm guilty of under-rating Adelaide pretty consistently (thinking back to last season here as well) but oppositions don't get much tougher than Geelong at the moment.

St Kilda v Fremantle:  Saints to win and I'll shut up about the other mob.

North Melbourne v Essendon:  Matthew Lloyd, welcome back (though I say this without any affection at all, merely respect as a fan of the game).  No Daniel Wells for North this week which means that they'll lack that extra bit of unpredictability that might otherwise make this game a harder consideration.  The Bombers seem pretty keen on making sure that they're not completely written out of final eight contention and should be ok here.

Richmond v Melbourne:  Big problems, massively huge problems, for Tigers coach Terry Wallace should they not win this game on Sunday arvo.  Word came out this morning that Mick Malthouse is possibly on the radar for the Tigers next year should he not stay with Collingwood, but I reckon they'd be better off looking elsewhere.  Richmond to win.

West Coast v Western Bulldogs:  It's the second trip to Subiaco in about a month for the Bulldogs which is enabling them to fly under the radar a little.  Keep an eye on 'em I say.  The wide open spaces of Subiaco Oval won't present too many problems for them and they'll be right to overcome the Eagles in the evening game.

That's it for this week, Go Lions, have a great weekend. 

Didnae do so well last week, what with my risks and all, but I believe everybody would have been surprised by Sydney's comprehensive win over Hawthorn last Saturday night which was terribly unexpected in all quarters.  A few tough games again this week which lead me to stick my neck out again, tempered by the knowledge that at times it's simply what you have to do to win a tipping comp.  Into it, will try to keep it short and sharp:

Geelong v Collingwood:  The Magpies had a predictable win against the Melbourne Demons last week which was then promptly sabotaged by one of their idiot fans (and, let's face it, it's accepted wisdom they have a larger proportion of these mugs than any other team) beating up on the father of one of the Melbourne players.  Mook.  And to top it off Eddie McGuire's confirmed he's returning to our television screens.  Cats to win.

St Kilda v West Coast:  I honestly thought that Port would have the better of the Eagles last week but they proved me wrong.  Can't see them beating the Saints at the dome though.

Brisbane v Sydney:  The Lions have a poor recent record against the Swans but this is starting to look like a must-win game for them which, this early in the season, just can't be a good thing.  Luke Power has talked about taking Sydney wide and perhaps using the Lions' younger legs against the older Swans which could be a key tactic.  I'm tipping Brisbane out of loyalty and for the upset.  Would appreciate seeing some post-game analysis as well. 

And hooray hurrah it's being broadcast into Canberra this Saturday night on a half-hour delay, presumably for the benefit of the "thousands" of Swans fans living here.  Need I remind readers that, given the level of interstate migration into Canberra for professional purposes, we've probably got the most diverse spread of AFL team supporters in the country.

Carlton v Essendon:  A special mention to my in-laws for this game which will result in one of two garden gnomes being put somewhere ignominious by the winning party.  Blues for the win.

Port Adelaide v Melbourne:  The Dees still have a ways to go and won't be able to overcome Port at home.  Bookies agree, putting Port at something like $1.15 for the win.

North Melbourn v Hawthorn:  The Hawks are having a terrible start to the season which is a shame given how entertaining they were against Geelong in their opening round loss.  They're really vulnerable here and so this is one of the tips I'll be reconsidering Sunday morning, particularly given their current disadvantage in the ruck due to injuries and suspensions.  A notional tip for Hawthorn.

Fremantle v Adelaide:  I promised last week I wouldn't carry on if a certain result didn't go my way, so I'll just say that in a close match I think the Dockers can scratch up their first win of the season.

Western Bulldogs v Richmond:  Poor, poor Tigers.  After some preseason successes I got a few messages from Tiger supporters of my acquaintance emphasising that they were "keeping a lid on it".  Just as well, really, as it's been a typically disastrous start to the season for them.  The Bulldogs, however, are being talked of as top two material come the conclusion of round 22 - consistent with particular predictions made prior to the season's start.  They should keep their form up with a win this Monday afternoon.

That's it for round 3, enjoy your Easter. 

Well I had a pretty good round last week with seven, missing out on a perfect score thanks to a typically stupid performance by Collingwood (who promptly had a big sook about the umpiring afterwards, the sookylalasookysooks). 

This weekend looks to be a harder one, with two games in particular causing me some vexation.  And can you guess which teams are involved?  Into it:

Adelaide v St Kilda - I'm tipping the Saints here, somewhat reluctantly as the Saints don't have the best record at AAMI stadium (9 to 3 against), but I was impressed at the way they held Sydney last week and they'll be bolstered by Lenny Hayes coming back into the team.  A close win.

Geelong v Richmond - Nice to know I was right about the Tigers as I think a lot of people may have been put off by Carlton blooding four new players in last week's game.  I caught the first half of Geelong's contest against the Hawks and found it most entertaining, though it wasn't enough to keep my tired little eyes open past close to midnight (cue yet another rant about free to air game broadcasting in Canberra).  Look, we all know how this is going to go tomorrow afternoon.  Cats to win.

Collingwood v Melbourne - I'm honestly beginning to think that both Malthouse and McGuire will be leaving the Magpies at the end of the season unless they're lifting a certain cup on Saturday September 26th.  Magpies to beat the Demons here.

Sydney v Hawthorn - To see Sydney get held goal-less for two quarters was pretty remarkable, and I just don't like their chances against a Hawks team looking to rebound after closely losing their grand final rematch last weekend.

Carlton v Brisbane - The first of the two "problem" games I referred to earlier, this one involving dear old Brisneyland.  Carlton are justified in feeling a bit happy with themselves after their comprehensive demolition of Richmond, whereas the Lions seemingly needed the benefit of what I hope was an almighty half-time rev-up from Voss to overcome the Eagles at the Gabba.  One thing I do like about Carlton-Brisbane games is booing Marc Murphy for not taking the opportunity to go to the Lions under the father-son rule despite all the effort the organisation put into getting him over. 

I think the Blues have the edge here, though I'm not at all confident given the strength of Brown and Bradshaw supported by the return of Black to the midfield.  I caught a radio call of the Lions game from about the 15 minute mark of the third quarter through to the end thanks to live streaming and got the impression that Brisbane was maybe lacking some match fitness.  Carlton's had the longer break between games and I suspect their fitness is a bit better, so they're the choice this time.  Oh, and it was great to see rookie Lion (cub?) Daniel Rich win a rising star nomination for his effort last Saturday night too.

Essendon v Fremantle - God help me, I don't know why I'm doing this but I'm going to tip Freo.  I just don't think the Bombers can do it given how they were beaten so effectively by Port last round.  Now the Dockers are no beauty contest either but I'm really just going on gut instinct here.  Could be one where I check the final team selections and analysis and change my mind tomorrow arvo, but a Fremantle win is what I've put down right now.  Look, if they lose then I promise not to bitch about them for the next four weeks, ok?  That'll teach me.

Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne - I think, really, that the Bulldogs had the better win of the two teams last Sunday, showing a lot of class against that team I was just carrying on about whereas North only had to overcome a hopeful Melbourne side.  I reckon this'd be a game worth watching, Bulldogs to win.

West Coast Eagles v Port Adelaide - Port had a very strong win against Essendon last week and go into Sunday afternoon's game with a good record against both West Australian teams at Subiaco Oval.  While the Eagles showed some promise against the Lions I think Port will win relatively easily.

That's it for this round, happy to hear your thoughts.  Enjoy your football this weekend. 

Figured I should get this up asap given that Richmond and Carlton are about to kick off at the 'G - not that I'd be able to watch it anyway as I live in Canberra and we do not matter when it comes to the broadcasting of games.  Blaggards.  I expect another frustrating season where you're really only guaranteed of seeing Swans games on the teev - even when they're being played at Manuka Oval.  And yes yes yes, I know if I got pay TV I could see more live games.

Anyway, enough bitching.  As per the system last year, winners emboldenedened:

Richmond Tigers v Carlton Blues - I'd like to tip Richmond, truly I would, and I must admit I'm not sure about Carlton blooding four new players tonight, but I think they've just got the edge here.  And it's not like Tigers fans aren't used to disappointment, is it? 

Hawthorn Hawks v Geelong Cats - Geelong.  My they must be pretty pissed off at themselves still for their lacklustre showing in the grand final, mustn't they?  I think they had a better preseason so that plus the crankypants factor should see them win.

Collingwood Magpies v Adelaide Crows - Battle o'the birds.  I can't see Adelaide having a stellar season this year and I think the Magpies are in comparatively better physical condition (though their mental condition should always be regarded as suspect).

Brisbane Lions v West Coast Eagles - Lions to prevail with new vice captain Daniel "The Comedian" Merrett (having now dropped the moniker of "Not Roger") and another crappy season for the Eagles - you can probably start appending the phrase "out of sorts" as a prefix already - to begin.

St Kilda Saints v Sydney Swans - Must be the prettiest team next to Hawthorn, the Saints, and I think they'll have it over the Swans.  I still rate Paul Roos as a coach though.

Melbourne Demons v North Melbourne - it has recently been raised with me that I too readily discounted North Melbourne which, you know, is fair 'nuff.  Easy tip this one barring a Freo-esque disaster.

[made it to 354 words before teasing Fremantle, a new record]

And here's hoping that 2009 is the season that the Dees start winning back a little respect.

Port Adelaide Power v Essendon Bombers - With respect to Peter McC, the Group's resident Bombers fan, while the Power don't usually enjoy the same sort of home advantage as other teams due to a support base with a proportion that can't really afford the tickets (and let's face it, that situation probably won't improve anytime soon), I just think they have the better list starting the season and will win on Sunday arvo.

Fremantle Dockers v Western Bulldogs - While it's a big trip over to Subiaco the Doggies have won comfortably there before. While I haven't read much about either side I expect that the Bulldogs will have the better game plan of the two teams and should come away with the win.

Would be lovely to start the season with a perfect 8 but we'll see.  Enjoy your footy this weekend - brief match reports to the group (*cough* davemonkey and co. *cough*) are welcomed.  Cheers.

Aaaaand we're back.  Less than a week to go now before Richmond take on Carlton for the start of the 2009 AFL season.  Can't wait.  Bought The Boy his first footy last week (a Brisbane Lions themed one in an attempt to keep my wife's Essendon subterfuge at bay) and we're already working on handball skills. 

So.  Some quick questions for the Vox group:

• Do you want the weekly round preview with tips?
• Would you like links to "articles of interest"?
• Would you like to read more analytical sort of stuff?
• Do the Fremantle Dockers cause you as much week-in week-out consternation as they do for me?

That last one was a trick question of course, as naturally everyone shakes their fist at those god-damned Dockers as much as I do (especially their fans).

I'll try to do the weekly tips preview but may not be able to make it every week, what with essays for my post-grad studies, a demanding job and the minor matter of a pending child being born about two thirds of the way through the season.  So, you know, other contributions are welcomed.

The AFL website has a quick analysis of the state of play and prospects for the all the teams which is worth reading.  I'm going to stick my neck out a little, having only really flicked through the linked article for a few of the clubs, and give a top eight prediction:

1. Geelong - still strong, and probably a little grumpier this year;
2. Western Bulldogs - have a good list and an easy-ish run into the finals;
3. Hawthorn - the reigning premiers have to be considered a top four certainty;
4. Collingwood - pressure's probably more on Malthouse and McGuire than the players, but they have a decent list and this year they have to make it count;
5. St Kilda - still in the mix, but won't lift the trophy to end a 42 year drought;
6. Richmond - yes, no ninth for the Tigers this year.  Apparently they picked up some Cousins bloke who's alright on the park;
7. Carlton - Have to be there if they can fix their defence up this season.  Hard call putting them at 7 instead of 8 or 9 but I think they have the ability to deserve their place here;
8. Brisbane - but really only because I'd like to see Voss get some minor success this season, and I'm therefore inclined to rate them higher than Port Adelaide or Sydney who are probably more likely to be here come September.  The Lions need their lower tier players to fire up or they are gone, gone, gone.

Happy to hear opposing arguments on this - write up your own final eight predictions and post them to the group.  Looking forward to a great season of footy. 

Well.  What a great grand final that was.  I honestly thought that the Cats were still a chance with about five minutes to go but the Hawks still prevailed.  I haven't been that engaged in a grand final match since Brisbane beat Essendon in 2001, literally edge of the seat [couch] stuff.

I'm not going to try and provide my own analysis as there are loads of others who are much more expert than I that you can go and hunt down, but I will just say that I thought yesterday's game was a good example of how one team can just be in a much better "headspace" - switched on, as it were - than another.  Port Adelaide beating a tired and fatigued Brisbane in 2004, for example. 

[Bastards.  Brisbane shouldn't have been forced to travel to play a preliminary final at the MCG, that was the telling blow back then.]

Despite the fact that Geelong had drawn level at quarter time it simply felt like the Hawks were the team that had come to really play on the day.  Some remarkable passages of play yesterday, such as the five minute burst of Stuart Dew in the third quarter - the way he managed to get the ball to Williams' advantage in a two on four situation for a goal was a "lifting" play for Hawthorn at exactly the right time.  The wonderful physicality of the game on display, Ablett, the silky, sublime skills of Ablett despite continuously fresh-legged opponents keeping him running across the half back line rather than punching forward.  Mooney kicking three consecutive behinds that really should have been goals. Mitchell from just inside 50 in the fourth, and so on and so on.

Let's have a quick team by team end of season comment, shall we?

Adelaide:  Coach Neil Craig's contract has been (rightly) extended and they should be in the finals mix again next year.  Shouldn't be too disappointed by this year's result, though nobody likes being beaten by Collingwood.

Brisbane:  I knew Simon Black would be in the mix for the Brownlow this year, honestly.  Interesting times ahead with Voss in charge, should be improvements.

Carlton:  It's all about Judd, isn't it?  Not since Barassi's move to Carlton has one player had such an impact on a playing group.  If they can cannily recruit and fix up their back line they'll be challengers in about three years - two years' time they could be in a preliminary final challenging for a grand final spot.  You heard it here first.  Maybe.  Someone else has probably said this given the sheer volume of writing about football out there.

Collingwood:  Some fans are, I believe, rightly asking why Malthouse wouldn't shed any light on his post-loss address to players and club officials after they were bundled out of the finals by the Saints.  Another year, another round of disappointment that isn't likely to improve next season.  I can't help wondering if they need a new coach when Mick's contract expires (or even before then).

Essendon:  Credit to Matthew Knights for sticking to his plans and seeing some hopeful signs of improvement towards the end of the season.  Still a long way to go though, and can't necessarily expect to be in the final eight next year.

Fremantle:  Word is they're reconsidering everything from the team list to the club song.  Continued hard times ahead for the bane of everyone's footy tips.  [shaking fist angrily]  Damn you Freeeeoooo!!

Geelong:  Dear oh dear.  Still the benchmark team in many ways though, as acknowledged by Hawthorn in the post-match speeches.  Will be a serious contender next year barring injury disasters.

Hawthorn:  Should be offering a course in How to rebuild a team 101 at the local TAFE any day now.  Worthy premiership winners, though I'm still a little put off by the segment of their supporter base that wears pink polo shirts, faux hawk haircuts, tight pants and white shoes and talk loudly while drinking low carb beers.  Get some hair on your fucking chests boys.

Kangaroos:  Hmm.  Yet another summer of introspection for North Melbourne, club and fans alike.  Need better performances from their playing list and some recruitment luck in the draft if there's going to be any hope at all.

Melbourne:  Worthy wooden spoon winners, though they did beat Brisbane the sodding blaggards.  Three to five more years and maybe, just maybe, they'll be somewhere around the final eight.   

Port Adelaide:  Meh.

Richmond:  Is there anyone out there who can confirm for me that Richmond have finished ninth/one spot out of finals contention more than any other team in Australian Rules history?  Maybe next year, though these three words are engraved on the soul of every Tigers supporter.  Lovely to see Richo in finals contention, good on'im and all that.

St Kilda:  Goodbye Mr Harvey, you will be missed. To get all zen for a moment for the tiring readers who are still with me by this point, if a Riewoldt falls in a forest, are the Saints any good at all?  Final eight next year but probably won't go further than they did a couple of weeks ago.  Probably. 

Sydney:  Paul Roos is one of my favourite coaches but he has the job ahead of him keeping the Swans up in the fickle, fickle world of Sydney fans (fair weathered precious creatures that they are). 

West Coast:  Still some pain ahead I think, with the likely loss of Kerr,  Bad times for Western Australian football, hey?

Western Bulldogs:  Fair enough that Cooney won the Brownlow, and how funny was it seeing Akermanis in the half-time sprint championship yesterday?  Part of me hopes Barry Hall goes there (though I think it unlikely).  Should be real contenders for the flag next season I reckon.

It would surprise me at all if we saw the same two teams in the grand final next year such is the gap between them and the rest of the comp (with the possible exception of the Bulldogs). 

Thanks for the season everyone, sorry I missed the round 22 preview but I was sans computer at the time and it just wasn't happening.  Enjoy the break and hopefully we'll all be back next March for a preview of season 2009. 

Try as I might to avoid them, I simply can't help having some niggling doubts about Michael Voss' appointment as coach of the Brisbane Lions for the next three years.  Let's ask a few questions -

• The Lions have said that they basically had a plan ready to go to put Voss in place once Matthews decided to leave - so where does that put Voss' negotiations with the Gold Coast franchise earlier this year around the same time?
• What are the longer term implications?  Voss has been signed up for a three year deal, and presumably that'll be extended should the team start performing consistently and making the finals.  But are we looking at a possible Sheedyesque period of extended tenure (barring disaster)?
• How will he go with the media and public scrutiny that coaches are now subject to?  It's markedly different to what he had to deal with as a player.
• And look, there's just no getting away from it - is a couple of years doing youth coaching and on-screen analysis enough for Voss to step straight into a senior coaching role?  Evidently there are many people who think so, and, sure, I can see where they're all coming from.  But geez, it's a nagging little question isn't it? 

You'd have to figure that he'll get pretty light treatment from fans and the media during season 2009, not least because of a playing list that is still at least a season away from being competitive in finals (as the last seven rounds of season 2008 demonstrated).  Will be interesting to see what initial moves he makes in the off-season recruitment period though as a sign of his intentions for the team.  Will he look to beef up the rucking stocks?  Is he likely to search around for a tall defender with the ability to rebound from the defensive 50?

Now there's no mistake that as a Lions fan I want success for the club - but I guess I have a preference for sustained performance over a long period as opposed to short, sharp periods of delight.  Doesn't worry me if we don't make the grand final every year, so long as we're at least in the mix and in with a chance.  So I wonder if this is the sort of thing that Voss will be looking to achieve over the first few years of his contract with Brisbane.  It'll be interesting to see what sort of internal "cultural" changes he makes as well, especially considering how close he was to his predecessor Leigh Matthews.  Just my minor opinions....

So it's the penultimate round, this one, and you can already feel the allure (?) of finals football in the air.  I'm going to keep this one quick as thanks to a disastrous hardware issue (or issues, as the pc's still with the guy) I'm typing this up from a terminal at a public library.  That's how much I care about this, people, that's how much I care.

Some interesting results last week with Richmond springing a massive surprise over Hawthorn and Brisbane getting up over the Western Bulldogs (just as I suspected though, foolishly, didn't tip).  So this week's predictions are again bolded for your careful and considered dissertation:

Western Bulldogs v Essendon;

Richmond v Fremantle;

Port Adelaide v Melbourne;

Brisbane v Carlton;

Collingwood v Sydney (but can the Swans shake the hold the Magpies have had over them?);

Geelong v Kangaroos;

St Kilda v Adelaide; and

West Coast v Hawthorn.

Hope you enjoy your footy this weekend, aveagoodone.