28 posts tagged “footy”

Only five our of eight last week which means I've really dropped off the lead in the tipping comps I'm in.  I have this horrible feeling that, come the end of round 22, I'll be looking back on the time a couple of months ago when I uncharacteristically trash-talked fellow tippers as the turning point.  Karma, perhaps.  Maybe I should make a list or something.

Anyway, this is the time of the season when injuries really start to take their toll, even though it hasn't been that long since they had a week off.  I reckon nearly every side in the comp at the moment has problems with key players so it sort of adds another bit of guesswork to the whole equation.  Into it:

Kangaroos v Collingwood:  Michael Voss really gives a wrap to the Magpies today, but frankly I'll be impressed with Collingwood when they don't get as cruisy a draw as they do week in week out.  Kangaroos are in real danger of dropping out of the eight and have too tough a task here, Shinboner spirit or not.

Geelong v Western Bulldogs:  Game of the round, and maybe the year to date.  No Ling after a deplorable act by Docker Dean Solomon and no Ablett due to an ankle injury.  But having said that, the Cats still have the talent and the depth to overcome the Bulldogs down at Kardinia Park.  It's a tough one to pick as there's a lot to like about the Sons of the West at the moment (old grudges held aside of course) but conditions should favour the Cats more.

Richmond v Essendon:  As I noted in an edit to last week's tipping post, the Bombers played with a bit of flair last week to beat the Lions.  Likewise, not tipping Richmond is a big regret of mine from the last round.  The Tigers are improving but how will they be feeling after the trip back from out west?  Essendon are missing a couple of key players in McVeigh and Lovett-Murray too, so do they have the depth to win?  I'm saying Tigers.

Brisbane v West Coast:  The Lions are facing injury problems too with talented young ruckman Leuenberger facing knee surgery and doubts over Black and Brown playing.  But the Eagles, let's face it, the "t" word must be being whispered around the halls of the club about now.  No Kerr thanks to a dopey suspension, Hunter out for the rest of the season, honestly both western teams are just complete bloody basketcases at the moment.  A depleted Brisbane to win at home.

St Kilda v Hawthorn:  Maybe I've been underestimating the Saints, it wasn't too bad a performance against Carlton last Friday night, helped no end by a stand out night for Milne.  Hawks will be too strong for them though - and how was the news about Shane Crawford (who's out for this round and maybe the next) taking horse medicine and pain killers in an effort to make it to his 300th game?  Freaky.

Carlton v Sydney:  Despite the remarkable efforts of one C. Judd in parts of the final quarter last week, Carlton would be feeling let down by the loss to the Saints - and let's not forget all the rubbish since then about Fevola's next contract.  What a mook.  This is a challenging game for both sides, and even though they're playing away I'm tipping the Swans.  I could probably do without seeing Tadgh Kenneally pop his shoulder back in a few times again though, thanks boys.

Port Adelaide v Adelaide:  Well, at least one of these sides gets to end a losing streak (barring a drawn result) as a result of this game.  Bookies seem relatively even and on paper it could certainly go either way, but I'm asking myself who has more to play for and my answer is the Crows. 

Fremantle v Melbourne:  "Who cares?" is the common refrain across the nation regarding this game.  Heard an interesting comment on local radio last night about the "culture" at Freo in light of their stupidity in the first quarter of their game against Geelong (where they clumsily tried to muscle them around a bit) and it's a totally fair question.  Melbourne continue to introduce young players but I can't see them overcoming even this useless old bunch of mugs (excepting Pavlich, Palmer and Mayne from this comment) at the broad expanses of Subiaco.  If they lose then I hope to see Dockers fans storm the ground in abject frustration.

So I need to string together a few sevens and eights to be more confident methinks, hope you enjoy your footy this weekend.

Before I start, I'd just like to briefly whinge about how freakin' cold it's been in Canberra this week.  Look at today's prediction -

Isolated showers, falling as snow on the hills around Canberra during the morning [I keep looking out the back to Mt Taylor but nope, no snow there]. Fresh to strong and gusty [heck yeah they are] west to northwest winds.

Precis:      A shower or two, windy.                     
City:        Max  9

Now in winter I'm normally a jeans and a couple of upper layers sort of guy, which I attribute to having "tundra blood".  But this week, boy, I've been feeling it, and not enjoying it as much as I have in the past.  Misery-guts weather maybe.  Big wind chill factor combining with the rain, and most nights I've had all the cats pinning me down on either side as I try to sleep.  Naturally only the one gas heater is working and we can't really afford to get another one at the moment, so it's on from about 5-6pm every evening warming up the living room.  I don't mind "fresh" cold, blue skies, clear air, absolutely beautiful here, but yeah, looking forward to this infernally cold wind ceasing.

Anyway, to the tipping.  As I've been saying of late, I hope nobody's trusting me in any way on my tips at the moment as I've been having a rough run.  This week's I entered on Sunday evening and have been resolved not to change them ever since.  To be honest I think lately I've been paying too much attention to what the bookies have been saying rather than gut instinct.  So.  Into it:

Carlton v St Kilda:  Last round it was interesting to see the Saints cut loose a bit from their normal restrictive style of play that's been imposed upon them this season by coach Ross Lyons (you can really see the Sydney influence)., but admittedly they were playing a North Melbourne side that seemed to have some big attitude problems on the night.  I'm tipping Carlton for this one as it's at the 'G and the Blues will enter the eight with a win (probably at St Kilda's expense).

Collingwood v Adelaide:  You'd have to think the Crows would still be feeling a bit shattered after their thumping at the hands of Geelong, and a loss to the Magpies will make it four in a row and form slump territory.  Unfortunately it's not looking good for them and their position in the top eight will be that much more tenuous after this Saturday afternoon.

Geelong v Fremantle:  The Dockers are welcoming back a few players (McPharlin, Farmer and Johnson) but geez, Geelong down at Kardinia Park has to be one of the toughest assignments in the league at the moment.  Custom made for a Freo upset isn't it though?  Cats should win.

Essendon v Brisbane:  [edited Sunday evening]  Unfortunately I can't be down in Melbourne for this game, which in our little household assumes an understated but bubbling importance right up until the point that - [the two teams play.] - Essendon loses - at which time it becomes completely irrelevant because Brisbane are a bunch of cheats and didn't deserve their premierships and Queenslanders like me still don't know anything about football. 

Of course if the Bombers win - [by virtue of playing much better football, then my wife, to her eternal credit, merely asks if I caught the game last night and that it looks like out of the two "footy bears" the Bombers one retains the higher position in the boy's bedroom.] - then it's a week or so of unbearable Costello-ish smugness and comments about the natural football order being restored and how the league really shouldn't ever have been expanded outside of Victoria. 

Invariably, the notional allegiance of our son is raised, and I refuse to make any apologies for negotiating a name that she preferred (and that, perhaps unbeknownst to her, I had no disagreement with) in return for his Lion-cub status, even if he'd just been taken from her womb, all tiny and fierce and crying, and she was on some pretty gnarly painkillers at the time.  Consent is consent I say.  And besides which, he has a grandfather that I secretly suspect could be inculcating him with notions of supporting Carlton as he gets older.  Interesting times ahead.

Anyway, after all that, Brisbane to make up for a stupid stupid stupid loss to Melbourne and grind those red and black so and so's into the still-dodgy-I-reckon Telstra Dome turf.   

Port Adelaide v Kangaroos:  Tough times for the Roos at the moment, heck for both teams really, with Shannon Grant being dropped for disciplinary reasons and questions being asked of the commitment of key players.  Meanwhile, Port just sort of drift along having written off the season.  North to get over the line by virtue of having a crankier coach.

Hawthorn v Sydney:  Barry, Barry, Barry - you really should be playing in this game.  Here's part of what he has to say for himself today -

Don't get me wrong - I'm not denying I have any issues or problems, and I'm not going to hide from anything. I'm not going to kid myself or lie to myself that there's nothing wrong, because there very well could be. Like Paul Roos said, he's not qualified to say what the problem is, and nor am I. But I understand where the Swans are coming from and I think they understand where I am coming from.

I have to get on the front foot now and source what help I can find, and do all the things I have to do to get myself to the point where I can play footy again.

This is a little bit of a tough one as the Swans have had the wood over the Hawks for the last six games or so, and Goodes returning should give them the extra bit of run and speed they seemed to miss against Collingwood last weekend.  But geez, the Hawks are still looking like a much improved side this season, and they'll be keen on building some momentum into next week's game against the Saints and then the much-anticipated clash against Geelong in round 17.  If it was at the SCG I might be more inclined to tip Sydney, but the home game factor for Hawthorn clinches them as the tip.

Western Bulldogs v Melbourne:  Credit to the Demons, they played with a lot of heart to beat the Lions in round 14, but they'll need that and more to overcome the Bulldogs this Sunday afternoon.  Good game for the Demons to learn a few things maybe, gotta look for positives after all.  I think it's worth keeping an eye on what's happening with their administration too under the very credible Jimmy Stynes. 

West Coast v Richmond:  The Tigers have already shown this season that they can win at Subiaco after beating Freo in round 3 (or five or something, I cannae remember).  It's a tough one, maybe the toughest of the round, so I'm going to play it safe and back the Eagles as the home team, despite the improving form shown by the Richmond side over the past several weeks.

Another long post, my apologies.  Enjoy your footy this weekend - especially those couple of you in the group who are Bombers supporters.

I mentioned in passing a couple of weeks ago about Michael Voss being approached by the Eagles, plus some analysis he'd done of the side, but I flippantly dismissed it thinking that he wouldn't want to make the move all the way over there.  But I've again been proved completely wrong, with Voss now accepting a two-year assistant coaching role with the Eagles after not getting his preferred terms with the yet to start Gold Coast franchise -

Today, I sit totally comfortable and really excited about my decision to join West Coast as an assistant coach. As much as others will focus on the Gold Coast situation, I've moved on. I've done what Robert Walls, my first senior coach, taught me: I've done what I think is right.

Video also available over at FoxSports.  The reaction around the place appears to be focussing on two things - what a blow this is for the Gold Coast franchise and what a good move this is for Voss.  And I can't argue with either of those.  Quick round up of what's being said around the net -

Caroline Wilson - "Kick in guts" for the AFL -

Voss and his young family this week spent four days of soul-searching at Port Douglas in far-north Queensland before arriving at the decision that most senior coaches would applaud and his most respected mentors advised. Certainly, after last year's apparent backflip, he needed to make a decision.

And yet, in choosing to oversee West Coast's depleted midfield and gain experience at one of the AFL's — in pure football terms — most professional outfits, he has become, symbolically, another key player to snub the competition's Gold Coast dream.

Andrew Stafford - One coast to another for a coach in waiting -

THE prospective Gold Coast Football Club has been dealt a serious blow, with coaching aspirant Michael Voss rejecting a three-year deal in favour of an assistant coaching position at West Coast.

Voss was widely considered the coach-in-waiting of the new club, still yet to be named, and had served as an advisor to the GC17 bid team. But in the end the two parties were unable to agree to terms, with Voss demanding a five-year contract.

Damian Barrett - Dramatic setback for Gold Coast - 

GC17 had earmarked Voss as not only its first coach in 2011, but as its public face in what is emerging as Australia's most competitive sports market.

With just three months left for GC17 to meet strict financial and supporter-based criteria in order to become the AFL's 17th team, the bid group will now establish new criteria to find a coach.

As recently as the weekend, GC17 believed Voss, a three-time premiership captain with Brisbane Lions, would coach its team in the Victorian under-18 competition next year, in the VFL in 2010 and the AFL in 2011. 

and Mike Sheahan - Eagles job will give Michael Voss valuable experience -

Michael Voss has made a wise decision. Wise decisions all round, I say.

West Coast has to be thrilled, while GC17 and the AFL will come to appreciate the benefits of the Voss decision.

Everyone who should know, everyone, says even people of the ilk of Voss and Nathan Buckley need to do a cadetship of sorts.

To learn coaching from the coach's box, from the club's offices during the week, when the reviews are done, when egos are brought back to size or massaged, when plans are formulated for next week's opponent.

So yeah, it's good that he's going to get some assistant coaching experience first.  Note also that it could possibly set him up for a return to the Lions in a few years too.  But then everyone in maroon, blue and gold would be thinking that today wouldn't they?  Footy tips to come a little later.

Well, I've had another shocking week with just 2 out of 6 correct from last weekend and, look, honestly, it's feeling like a form slump.  I've been a bit crook and had a few other things going on lately so I'm just putting it down to having my attention drawn elsewhere.  Here's hoping that this blip in what has largely otherwise been a good season of tipping doesn't have too big an impact on the tally at the end of round 22. 

To this weekend's two games to finalise Round 14:

Adelaide v Geelong:  Geelong welcome back some big names and should have a win here.  Interesting article by Jake Niall yesterday about how the weird draw for this season has been of some help to the Cats -

The most celebrated oddity of this weird new schedule is that Geelong does not play its putative challenger Hawthorn until round 17. No less significant is the fact that the Cats don't play the Western Bulldogs, who have supplanted Hawthorn in second spot, until round 16.

Far from being handicapped after their premiership, the Cats have been handed what has turned out to be a very friendly schedule. They will end up playing two clubs in the current bottom four — Port Adelaide and Fremantle — twice each before they play their nearest ladder competitors in rounds 16 and 17.

Sydney v Collingwood:  There won't be a shortage of Magpies fans at the Telstra Stadium for a game that should be considered winnable by the Collingwood team.  I'm hesitant to pick Sydney due to Goodes not playing (even though they welcome back Everitt) and their recent record against the Magpies, but still, they should get a win here I think.  Put a tenner on the Magpies if you're a gambler perhaps.

Let's start with some choice quotes from last week's tips shall we?

...there's an element of basic foolhardiness in tipping the Dockers but it worked last week so I'll be giving it another go.

...I think [the Kangaroos are] unable to mount a convincing case that they can beat the Hawks tomorrow.

...No Johnstone, no Sherman for Brisbane tomorrow night.  Get your money on Adelaide while you can.

[Re: Port v Richmond] ...This is the sort of game that Richmond are likely to win but I'm sticking with the home team this time.  Tigers would be worth a punt if you're a gambler though.

Having said that, despite my worst week of tips this season with three out of eight I'm still leading one comp and in equal third in another.  Weird.  It's a split round for the next couple of weeks with six games this weekend and the remaining two the following, so no doubt all the clubs will appreciate a little bit of time off.  Let's have a look at what's on:

Hawthorn v West Coast:  North Melbourne ably demonstrated some of the Hawk's defensive weaknesses in their win last weekend, but you just can't see the Eagles repeating the trick.  And this news about Michael Voss being approached by the Eagles is a bit weird too, noting that his column today in The Age considers the side.

Richmond v Carlton:  Very good win by the Tigers last weekend against a pretty useless Port side so they'll have a bit of confidence coming into this game against the Blues.  Chris Judd took a bit of a knock in the loss against Essendon and I don't think he'll play.  Bookies are picking the Tigers and I think I'll get on board.  Not least because Richmond also have the most singable club song as well.  "We come from Ti-ger-land.."

Kangaroos v St Kilda:  North Melbourne would naturally prefer to hang onto their top eight spot against a Saints team just two points below them in ninth spot.  Danger game for the Roos with Dal Santo, Milne and Koschitzke also returning for St Kilda, but their style of play is too negative to be able to beat North Melbourne at the unfamiliar surrounds of Carrara Stadium.

Western Bulldogs v Port Adelaide:  Port, recognising that the season's gone (and I believe that the Port Adelaide CEO John James resigned this morning too), has started blooding new players, and they may as well make it an AFL initiation to remember against the hard-tackling Bulldogs.  I heard that the Collingwood v Bulldogs game last Sunday evening was a ripper and the Sons of the West shoudn't have any problems here.

Melbourne v Brisbane:  Interesting talk in Canberra at the moment about how the Demons are keen to play here a few more times basically because the government subsidies make it more profitable than playing in Melbourne.  Of course while they're here it's all about "developing the code" etc etc etc, but they wouldn't want to underestimate this market.  Anyway, this match is a bit of a no-brainer, isn't it?  Lions by lots.

Fremantle v Essendon:  Probably the hardest match of the round to pick.  Freo have dropped Jeff Farmer for disciplinary reasons while the Bombers have lost the promising Jason Winderlich to injury for the rest of the season.  Essendon will be feeling good about themselves after beating up Carlton last week but their recent record at Subiaco's pretty poor.  Another half-hearted Dockers tip from me for this week.

So that's it until a brief preview of the Adelaide v Geelong and Sydney v Collingwood matches next weekend, enjoy your footy.

Looks like a few people were looking for upsets last week as I managed shoot back to the outright top in both comps.  I caught parts of the Western Bulldogs v Brisbane game on radio and yeah, I'm glad I didnae watch it on the tv.  Then Sunday I caught most of the Collingwood v Carlton game with that wonderful last quarter by Judd and co. stomping the Blues into the top eight. 

Interesting times.  Let's have a look at round 13:

St Kilda v Fremantle:  Well, the season's pretty much written off for both of these sides but they don't look the tanking type.  News for the Saints is the dropping of Nick Dal Santo and Stephen Milne for tonight's game with a few youngsters coming in too.  No changes to the Freo side that convincingly beat North Melbourne last Saturday arvo.  Freo doesn't have that great a record at the Dome, but if they're going to win one tonight is probably one of their better opportunities.  Maybe their confidence is improving too.  Again, there's an element of basic foolhardiness in tipping the Dockers but it worked last week so I'll be giving it another go.

Hawthorn v Kangaroos:  Some thought Franklin was lucky to get off with a reprimand for his bump in the Adelaide game but it didn't look that bad to me.  No Chance Bateman for them against the Roos which will be a blow, but North Melbourne have enough injury concerns of their own too.  I think they're unable to mount a convincing case that they can beat the Hawks tomorrow.

Port Adelaide v Richmond:   Hmm, the "chokers" tag would have to be weighing a least a little on the minds of the folk down at Port Adelaide this week, as ably noted by David a few days ago.  This is the sort of game that Richmond are likely to win but I'm sticking with the home team this time.  Tigers would be worth a punt if you're a gambler though.

Brisbane v Adelaide:  So a couple of weeks ago I wrote -

The next two weeks sees the Lions play the Western Bulldogs and Adelaide which will provide a much better indication of their September chances (assuming there are no significant injury concerns by then).

Brisbane are likely to be without Bradshaw, Roe and Leunberger, though Rischitelli and Copeland return along with debutante Tom Collier.  The loss of Bradshaw in particular hurts them.  Fact is they got well and truly thumped by the Bulldogs last week, with the key message from the side appearing to be about the "learning experience" gained from the loss (standard sort of stuff really).  

This week's match against 5th placed Adelaide will be another hard test, and to be honest I don't think they're up to it.  Bookies are against me and it's probably the roughie of the week, but I'll be tipping the Crows to win (while inwardly hoping the Lions prevail).  

[Update Friday evening]:  No Johnstone, no Sherman for Brisbane tomorrow night.  Get your money on Adelaide while you can. 

West Coast v Geelong:  The Eagles almost beat the Cats earlier in the season but since then the fortunes of the two sides have gone in opposite directions.  Barring disaster it'll be another win for Geelong.

Melbourne v Sydney:  This one's in Canberra but to be frank I've got better things to do than to see what should be a pretty crap game, especially if you're a Demons supporter.  And in a flash of brilliance, the match is being shown live into Canberra on free to air tv which should just do wonders for the attendance figures.  Which will then no doubt contribute to even fewer games coming here.  Despite the cold it's a good venue to watch the footy at, that I'll happily attest to.  Sydney to win this match by miles.

Carlton v Essendon:  This should be a good game, one worth watching.  Carlton are really starting to come together as a team and Judd continues to demonstrate the ability to nearly single-handedly bend a game to his will like great players can (as per his second half against Collingwood last weekend).  The Bombers thumped them earlier in the year but I think they'll have the better of them this time. 

Collingwood v Western Bulldogs:  Here come the Collywobbles.  The Magpies look to be without three key players in Cloke, Davis and Fraser while there are no such problems for the Bulldogs.  The "Sons of the West" should have a good game here and win by around seven or eight goals.  Easy.

Tipping a number of away teams here which is always a bit of a worry, but it should be right.  Enjoy your footy this weekend. 

Seven out of eight last week thanks to a moronic final quarter by Port Adelaide in their game against Carlton last Sunday evening.  No match focus this week, too busy what with little boys who won't have their daytime nap and all.  So a quick preview:

Essendon v West Coast:  The Bombers were competitive with Hawthorn last week and were it not for the freakish Mr Franklin may well have come away with a win (in that alternative universe I mentioned last week, I guess).  The final minutes of the Eagles' game against Sydney last Saturday night were some of the tensest I've seen and they'll be kicking themselves that they blew such a big lead during the second half.  Essendon should have the edge here, but it's a tough one.

Western Bulldogs v Brisbane:  This will be a real test for the Lions as they play a team that's looking like a genuine premiership contender after their win against Hawthorn and then their effort against the Saints last weekend.  No Bradshaw in the Brisbane side but they have a few running defenders returning which will help them against the hard-running Bulldogs.  I'd love to tip Brisbane for this but hey, I've got tipping comps to win.  Should be the Bulldogs tomorrow arvo.  Looks like I won't be able to watch the game live with some caselaw research to finalise at ANU instead.  Bugger.

Fremantle v North Melbourne:  The Dockers showed some promising signs last week, particularly the form of young forwards Palmer and Mayne, though you can see their inexperience in some of their decision making.  North, on the other hand, need a win to ensure they're cemented in the top eight.  The bookies have this one pretty even, so I'm going with Freo as they're playing at home and if they lose then it gives me something to bitch about for the rest of the weekend.  Though there's no shortage of topics in that regard, believe me.  Grumble grumble grumble.

Sydney v St Kilda:  Commentators are saying that St Kilda's window of premiership opportunity has now closed, and a loss against the Swans this weekend will only emphasise the point.  Barry Hall returns for Sydney after that punch and they shouldn't have too many problems beating the Saints at the SCG.

Adelaide v Hawthorn:  Another tough game to pick (odds are dead even), but I just don't think that the Crows "have it" this season.  AAMI stadium isn't too intimidating a task for visiting teams so I'm tipping the Hawks to win, especially considering they beat them easily in round 4 down at Launceston.

Geelong v Port Adelaide:  The Port Power should be pretty grumpy at themselves after such a stupid loss to Carlton last weekend, but considering they're facing the premiers the best they can probably hope for is to turn in a performance that commentators will call "competitive", i.e. they don't get absolutely thumped.  The Cats to win at home on Sunday afternoon. 

Collingwood v Carlton:  Again, I wonder aloud when the collywobbles are going to kick in.  Will it be this weekend in a match that the majority of tipsters, experts and random hobos expect them to win?  Carlton knocked over Collingwood in round 4 but the magpies will have hardened since then, and if Wakelin can keep Fev held down to a few goals at most then they'll be right.  Should be a couple of interesting matchups in the midfield, too.

Richmond v Melbourne:  Tigers fans will be pencilling this in as a much anticipated win, and rightly so against the hapless, hapless Dees.  Having said that, if there's a team that could lose it then Richmond joins Freo in such a category.  Tigers to win though.

That's it for this week then.  Interesting to see Voss' comment that

[n]ever before can I remember a top eight so clear-cut at the halfway mark of the season.

I think he has a point.  Be sure to check out the ABC's Grandstand AFL site occasionally as well, looks like they've got pods and interviews and all.  Enjoy your footy this weekend.

Not sure I have the time for coming up with one of my own, so take a look at RealFooty's half-time report over their way.  A simple team by team analysis with predictions as to whether they'll rise, hold or lose their place on the ladder. 

Seems like a relatively easy round to pick, this one, but what worries me is the number of away teams being chosen.  Something a little different this week too, figured I'd have a "match focus" with a bit more info about one game and less about all the others.

Now it strikes me that most of the Australian Rules Football group members are Lions supporters, and I acknowledge that in the past I've tended to give the team's matches more attention than others.  Barring vociferous objections, this is the way I'll keep it.  So let's have a look at...

Match Focus - Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers - Gabba - Sunday 1:10pm EST kickoff:

David's already picked up on a piece by Michael Voss about the Lions gearing up for a premiership.  This is something he actually first raised publicly in comments prior to the game against Carlton several weeks ago when asked about Travis Johnstone, and repeated again today -

The decision to trade for 27-year-old Travis Johnstone last November is undeniable proof. Otherwise they would not have given up a first-round draft pick for a player who won't be at the club in five years.

At the same website, Real Footy, Rohan Connolly also had this to say about Brisbane's improving backline a bit over a week and a half ago -    

But it's the Lions' alleged achilles heel, pre-season — their back line — which is providing perhaps the greatest eyebrow-raiser.

On paper, names like Daniel Merrett, Joel Patfull, Joel MacDonald, Jason Roe and Josh Drummond didn't inspire a heap of faith. The reality is proving anything but, a nice blend of defensive steel and, with Drummond's superb kicking skills, and Jarred Brennan's "x-factor", more than enough dash and creativity.

"X-Factor" indeed.  Brisbane are more than a good chance of beating Fremantle this week, which will make it four games on the trot and keep them in the bottom half of the eight.  But let's not get carried away here.  Only one of those wins will have been against "quality" opposition in a competition that's looking less socialist by the week. 

The next two weeks sees the Lions play the Western Bulldogs and Adelaide which will provide a much better indication of their September chances (assuming there are no significant injury concerns by then).  And looking even further ahead, the last five rounds of the season see them play the Kangaroos, Hawthorn, Bulldogs, Carlton and Sydney - all of which are eminently losable games and could cost the Lions momentum going into the finals.  You'd hate to see them playing Sydney for the final spot in the eight, for example.

As for Fremantle, well, I'm steadily working on my obsession with how useless they are after they once again disappointed me (and thousands of others) last weekend against Port. 

You see, somewhere there's a parallel universe where the Dockers didn't lose to Richmond at home in Round 4 and, even though they were beaten by Adelaide by a couple of goals at AAMI stadium the following week, rebounded well to beat the premiers Geelong by 1 point at Subiaco in Round 6.  In this parallel universe the the Dockers have turned into "fourth quarter specialists", showing the sort of steel that a first-year coach like Mark Harvey is thanking his lucky stars for while pundits try to determine just how he got it right.

Of course, in this parallel universe I'm also a multi-award winning performance artist known as Spanky McPhee with poetry-groupies calling themselves "Spankers".  Just like the daily musings of Dockers supporters, these are but idle dreams and fancies.  Brisbane to win by five goals.

To the remaining games:

Kangaroos v Geelong:  Couple of key forwards missing for North Melbourne (Thompson and Jones) while Geelong welcomes back a couple (Mooney and Chapman).  North will push them but Geelong should prevail.

Richmond v Adelaide:  Danger game for the Crows after a near-loss against Essendon at home last week in terribly slippery conditions.  No captain Kane Johnson for the Tigers but they welcome back Graham Polak and Greg Tivendale.  A win for the Crows on paper but Richmond might be ready for a trademark upset...

Essendon v Hawthorn:  The Hawks will be kicking themselves for a less than stellar performance against the Bulldogs last week, while Bombers fans are hoping that their showing against Adelaide can be continued into Saturday afternoon.  But of the two teams I expect the Hawks will be hungrier for redemption and to maintain their hold on a top two position. 

West Coast v Sydney:  Sydney have had a couple of memorable Subiaco wins in the past but their likely win here against the struggling Eagles probably won't have as much tension as previous games. 

St Kilda v Western Bulldogs:  Yet another season going off the rails for the Saints and, while they need desperately to win this game to make a statement to their fans at the very least, the Bulldogs are fresh off an excellent win against the Hawks in picturesque Launceston last Saturday arvo.  Bulldogs to win and then immediately start preparing for their game against Brisbane.

Port Adelaide v Carlton:  Port would have been full of confidence going into the final quarter of last week's game against Freo, and they should be able to maintain spirits with a win at home against an underwhelming (considering the talent) Blues side.  As I (and everyone else) keep(s) saying, the Blues defence isn't yet strong enough against teams with forward options and that should be the key issue again here with Port to run out the game as winners.

Melbourne v Collingwood:  Just when the Demons' season was already looking terrible, key position player Russell Robertson is now out for the rest of the year.  Magpies fans would have half an eye on upcoming collywobbles but they'll be right this weekend at least.  Next week's game against Carlton looms as being more dangerous for the Magpies.

Wow, long post.  Enjoy your footy this weekend.

I had a shocking round last weekend with just three out of eight tips correct, but thankfully so did many others so I'm sharing the lead in comps and behind only on margin.  Happy for the pressure to be on a few others for a change, but it really highlights how important it is to be able to pick the "right" upsets in any given round.

Before we consider this week's matches, just thought I'd mention a couple of things:

1.  The next-to-final word on The Footy Show appears to be a bit of cosmetic stuff, with Sam Newman now on "extended leave" - not least, it should be noted, because he has to get treatment for a prostate condition - as well as receive some professional counselling.  Which will probably do bugger-all, but at least it looks like pressure from advertisers may have changed the position of Channel 9 executives.  Note also that Susan Alberti is still going ahead with her legal action.

2.  Possible problems with Jonathan Brown and the future of his tenure with the Lions.  According to the article linked to it's about contract length, with both parties having perfectly understandable positions.  I expect a deal will be struck despite Collingwood's best efforts to lure him back to Victoria.  Oh, and the Lions really should just pull their finger out and have him as the Brisbane captain - Luke Power and Simon Black are perfectly worthwhile candidates as well, but fact is that Brown is more marketable.  Those closer to the action in Brisbane may wish to comment further.

Right then, what have we got this round?  Already thinking that after round 11 we should do a bit of team by team analysis at the mid-season point.  Into it:

Adelaide v Essendon:  Lucas returns for the Bombers but he'll be underdone and won't be up for a big game until at least next week.  I note also that Mal Michael still hasn't returned to the team.  Recalcitrance is the word that immediately comes to mind regarding what the situation may be.  Adelaide will be a bit cranky after their loss to the Eagles last week and will overcome the Bombers at home.  Merely a question a margin, really.

Collingwood v West Coast:  The aforementioned win by West Coast would have been reassuring, but playing a Magpies team at the MCG fresh off a win against the former premiers is a big ask of a team that still has big problems.  Collingwood to win.

Hawthorn v Bulldogs:  Game of the round you'd have to think, though Brisbane v North Melbourne should also be a ripper.  Michael Voss has come out with his own theories as to why the Bulldogs will win and he makes a number of perfectly legitimate points in support.  And yeah, Hawthorn are due for a loss.  But it's the Franklin v Lake contest, the size difference between the two sets of forwards, and a few other things that have me thinking they'll prevail.  Tough choice for everyone barr the hardcore fans methinks.

Brisbane v North Melbourne:  So a full afternoon and evening of entertaining football awaits us.  Except those of us who don't get to see this game because apparently Canberra viewers aren't interested.  Blaggards.  There's been a brief discussion about this match amongst a few friends, with mention of the wet weather up north.  If this is the case then it makes the decision harder as North are generally an ok wet weather team, whereas Brisbane maybe don't get as many games in the wet during the season.  Just a thought.  Brisbane to prevail though.  Oh, and here's hoping that Simon Black's injury problems don't continue too...

Geelong v Carlton:  So Geelong are beatable, they were due for a loss really which the eagle-eyed amongst us may have seen the foreshadows of in their first quarter against Richmond a couple of weeks ago.  Brad Ottens returns to play against a Carlton side that overcame goddamned 'king Freo last week.  Carlton continue to show improvement but Geelong has too much over the park for them this Saturday night at the Telstra Dome.

Sydney v Richmond:  This game's at the SCG which makes this game an easier choice - if it was being played at the MCG then I'd rate the Tigers' chances more highly.  I'll be at lectures all day Sunday which means I won't be able to see Richo face off against the tight-as Sydney defence which might be worth the price of admission alone for Sydneysiders.  Swans to win, but not by a lot.

St Kilda v Melbourne:  Saints coach Ross Lyon rightly chastised his team for being too soft, and if they lose against Melbourn this Sunday arvo you can add a number of other unflattering adjectives to that assessment.  Are the Demons showing signs of improvement?  You can only imagine how much I want them to win a few games to put the Bombers in wooden spoon territory, though it'll stuff up everyone's tips no end.  Talk about an emotional balancing act.  Anyways, after all that guff I expect that St Kilda will get a little confidence back with a win.

Fremantle v Port Adelaide:  My "relationship" with Freo - and come on, you sorta know what I'm talking about here - is now so dire that I'm looking to the departure of a Freo-lovin' friend to an overseas job to be the catalyst for a run of better form for the Dockers.  But that's still around four weeks away, so in the meantime I still have to endure a weekly struggle of trying to work out which Freo personality is going to come to the forefront on the football field in the coming game.  I'm going to tip them to beat Port Adelaide because Carr returns to the team and because they simply have to win in front of the fans this week.  They just have to.  Now that I've said that, they can go ahead and work out a new and interesting way to lose. 

That's it for this week, happy viewing.