22 posts tagged “tipping”

Just... just don't pay attention to my tips.  I mean last week was simply a disaster, with my lowest score in a few years.  There I was, thinking it was all pretty straightforward, so the universe goes and gives me a right kick up the arse and tells me to pay attention, or don't, or develop a randomised method of tipping and do that instead, or work out a complicated system involving the cats somehow, or whatever.  Dammit.  Pushed me from 2nd to 13th in one comp and kept me in second in the other with fellow tipsters catching up markedly. 

So I'm going to keep this simple and not put so much effort into the analysis given it's likely at least three of them will be proved wrong:

Port Adelaide v St Kilda:  Saints are due for a win and Port can't beat a top four team twice in a row.

Essendon v Collingwood:  Good win for the Pies last week to get them back into some kind of form, should get the win in tomorrow's big game.

Hawthorn v West Coast:  Tasmania, cranky Hawks chastened after being beaten by Port, inconsistent Eagles, Hawthorn to win.

North Melbourne v Richmond:  5 losses in a row for the Tigers I reckon despite Mark Coughlan's return.  Wallace won't go till the end of the season.

Fremantle v Sydney Swans:  God help me, I'm tipping the Dockers.  Lord ha'mercy on dis poah, deluded boy etc etc.  Sydney like the tight spaces of the SCG but the wide open spaces of Subiaco Oval aren't so amenable.

Geelong v Brisbane:  No ruckmen, no chance for the Lions against the Premiership favourites, especially at Kardinia Park.

Western Bulldogs v Carlton:  No Akermanis or Cooney for the Bulldogs versus a Blues team looking to make amends for a clumsy loss against Sydney last week.

Melbourne v Adelaide:  The Demons needed the win, albeit against the Tigers, but won't be able to overcome the Crows.

Ok, so I'm seeing at least four games there that could go the other way.  Which is why I never bet on football.  Enjoy your weekend, and I trust you'll spare a thought for our veterans tomorrow.

Well, I did the right thing last round by sticking with Brisbane and Hawthorn but didn't expect Carlton to be overrun by the Bombers (damn those uppity red and black so and so forths) and also should really have changed my tip away from a certain West Australian team (rhymes with "fockers" as in "those stupid bloody purple-wearing fockers").  But anyway, I'm still subject to week 2 of a four week self-imposed ban, aren't I? 

This week appears to present an easier state of affairs, and barring disaster I expect it to be merely a case of margin in deciding who leads at the conclusion of the round.  So here we go:

Brisbane v Collingwood:  T'was most excellent to see some of the second tier players like Patfull, Drummond and Proud starting to step up in the Lions win against Sydney last Saturday night, though as a fellow watcher remarked could someone please help Travis Johnston with his kicking?  Rocca returns for Collingwood, which means he'll hang around the goal square all night getting marked by Merrett until kicking a boomer from 60 metres out and busting his hamstring.  Or he'll kick 8 and win the game.  He's that kinda guy.  I'm tipping Brisbane given they have a good recent record against them.

Hawthorn v Port Adelaide:  Hawthorn were another team that had some previously underrated players step up in their strong win over the Kangaroos last Sunday.  Hit up with a bout of gastro I caught most of the game while lying on the couch feeling sorry for myself and enjoyed what I saw.  Port, on the other hand, appear to have a disciplinary problem having lost a couple of key players (Cassisi and Burgoyne) due to foolish infractions.  Hawks easily here.

Sydney v Carlton: Can't help thinking that a couple of stupid free kicks against Carlton right in front of goal cost them the game against Essendon, but they should be right here against a Sydney team that kind of looks a little demoralised at the moment.  But if there's one game this weekend that I'm a little unsure about, it's this one.  An 85% confident tip for the Blues.

Adelaide v Geelong: Cats will be fine here playing the Crows at AAMI Stadium, I'm starting to think that I'm guilty of under-rating Adelaide pretty consistently (thinking back to last season here as well) but oppositions don't get much tougher than Geelong at the moment.

St Kilda v Fremantle:  Saints to win and I'll shut up about the other mob.

North Melbourne v Essendon:  Matthew Lloyd, welcome back (though I say this without any affection at all, merely respect as a fan of the game).  No Daniel Wells for North this week which means that they'll lack that extra bit of unpredictability that might otherwise make this game a harder consideration.  The Bombers seem pretty keen on making sure that they're not completely written out of final eight contention and should be ok here.

Richmond v Melbourne:  Big problems, massively huge problems, for Tigers coach Terry Wallace should they not win this game on Sunday arvo.  Word came out this morning that Mick Malthouse is possibly on the radar for the Tigers next year should he not stay with Collingwood, but I reckon they'd be better off looking elsewhere.  Richmond to win.

West Coast v Western Bulldogs:  It's the second trip to Subiaco in about a month for the Bulldogs which is enabling them to fly under the radar a little.  Keep an eye on 'em I say.  The wide open spaces of Subiaco Oval won't present too many problems for them and they'll be right to overcome the Eagles in the evening game.

That's it for this week, Go Lions, have a great weekend. 

Didnae do so well last week, what with my risks and all, but I believe everybody would have been surprised by Sydney's comprehensive win over Hawthorn last Saturday night which was terribly unexpected in all quarters.  A few tough games again this week which lead me to stick my neck out again, tempered by the knowledge that at times it's simply what you have to do to win a tipping comp.  Into it, will try to keep it short and sharp:

Geelong v Collingwood:  The Magpies had a predictable win against the Melbourne Demons last week which was then promptly sabotaged by one of their idiot fans (and, let's face it, it's accepted wisdom they have a larger proportion of these mugs than any other team) beating up on the father of one of the Melbourne players.  Mook.  And to top it off Eddie McGuire's confirmed he's returning to our television screens.  Cats to win.

St Kilda v West Coast:  I honestly thought that Port would have the better of the Eagles last week but they proved me wrong.  Can't see them beating the Saints at the dome though.

Brisbane v Sydney:  The Lions have a poor recent record against the Swans but this is starting to look like a must-win game for them which, this early in the season, just can't be a good thing.  Luke Power has talked about taking Sydney wide and perhaps using the Lions' younger legs against the older Swans which could be a key tactic.  I'm tipping Brisbane out of loyalty and for the upset.  Would appreciate seeing some post-game analysis as well. 

And hooray hurrah it's being broadcast into Canberra this Saturday night on a half-hour delay, presumably for the benefit of the "thousands" of Swans fans living here.  Need I remind readers that, given the level of interstate migration into Canberra for professional purposes, we've probably got the most diverse spread of AFL team supporters in the country.

Carlton v Essendon:  A special mention to my in-laws for this game which will result in one of two garden gnomes being put somewhere ignominious by the winning party.  Blues for the win.

Port Adelaide v Melbourne:  The Dees still have a ways to go and won't be able to overcome Port at home.  Bookies agree, putting Port at something like $1.15 for the win.

North Melbourn v Hawthorn:  The Hawks are having a terrible start to the season which is a shame given how entertaining they were against Geelong in their opening round loss.  They're really vulnerable here and so this is one of the tips I'll be reconsidering Sunday morning, particularly given their current disadvantage in the ruck due to injuries and suspensions.  A notional tip for Hawthorn.

Fremantle v Adelaide:  I promised last week I wouldn't carry on if a certain result didn't go my way, so I'll just say that in a close match I think the Dockers can scratch up their first win of the season.

Western Bulldogs v Richmond:  Poor, poor Tigers.  After some preseason successes I got a few messages from Tiger supporters of my acquaintance emphasising that they were "keeping a lid on it".  Just as well, really, as it's been a typically disastrous start to the season for them.  The Bulldogs, however, are being talked of as top two material come the conclusion of round 22 - consistent with particular predictions made prior to the season's start.  They should keep their form up with a win this Monday afternoon.

That's it for round 3, enjoy your Easter. 

Well I had a pretty good round last week with seven, missing out on a perfect score thanks to a typically stupid performance by Collingwood (who promptly had a big sook about the umpiring afterwards, the sookylalasookysooks). 

This weekend looks to be a harder one, with two games in particular causing me some vexation.  And can you guess which teams are involved?  Into it:

Adelaide v St Kilda - I'm tipping the Saints here, somewhat reluctantly as the Saints don't have the best record at AAMI stadium (9 to 3 against), but I was impressed at the way they held Sydney last week and they'll be bolstered by Lenny Hayes coming back into the team.  A close win.

Geelong v Richmond - Nice to know I was right about the Tigers as I think a lot of people may have been put off by Carlton blooding four new players in last week's game.  I caught the first half of Geelong's contest against the Hawks and found it most entertaining, though it wasn't enough to keep my tired little eyes open past close to midnight (cue yet another rant about free to air game broadcasting in Canberra).  Look, we all know how this is going to go tomorrow afternoon.  Cats to win.

Collingwood v Melbourne - I'm honestly beginning to think that both Malthouse and McGuire will be leaving the Magpies at the end of the season unless they're lifting a certain cup on Saturday September 26th.  Magpies to beat the Demons here.

Sydney v Hawthorn - To see Sydney get held goal-less for two quarters was pretty remarkable, and I just don't like their chances against a Hawks team looking to rebound after closely losing their grand final rematch last weekend.

Carlton v Brisbane - The first of the two "problem" games I referred to earlier, this one involving dear old Brisneyland.  Carlton are justified in feeling a bit happy with themselves after their comprehensive demolition of Richmond, whereas the Lions seemingly needed the benefit of what I hope was an almighty half-time rev-up from Voss to overcome the Eagles at the Gabba.  One thing I do like about Carlton-Brisbane games is booing Marc Murphy for not taking the opportunity to go to the Lions under the father-son rule despite all the effort the organisation put into getting him over. 

I think the Blues have the edge here, though I'm not at all confident given the strength of Brown and Bradshaw supported by the return of Black to the midfield.  I caught a radio call of the Lions game from about the 15 minute mark of the third quarter through to the end thanks to live streaming and got the impression that Brisbane was maybe lacking some match fitness.  Carlton's had the longer break between games and I suspect their fitness is a bit better, so they're the choice this time.  Oh, and it was great to see rookie Lion (cub?) Daniel Rich win a rising star nomination for his effort last Saturday night too.

Essendon v Fremantle - God help me, I don't know why I'm doing this but I'm going to tip Freo.  I just don't think the Bombers can do it given how they were beaten so effectively by Port last round.  Now the Dockers are no beauty contest either but I'm really just going on gut instinct here.  Could be one where I check the final team selections and analysis and change my mind tomorrow arvo, but a Fremantle win is what I've put down right now.  Look, if they lose then I promise not to bitch about them for the next four weeks, ok?  That'll teach me.

Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne - I think, really, that the Bulldogs had the better win of the two teams last Sunday, showing a lot of class against that team I was just carrying on about whereas North only had to overcome a hopeful Melbourne side.  I reckon this'd be a game worth watching, Bulldogs to win.

West Coast Eagles v Port Adelaide - Port had a very strong win against Essendon last week and go into Sunday afternoon's game with a good record against both West Australian teams at Subiaco Oval.  While the Eagles showed some promise against the Lions I think Port will win relatively easily.

That's it for this round, happy to hear your thoughts.  Enjoy your football this weekend. 

Figured I should get this up asap given that Richmond and Carlton are about to kick off at the 'G - not that I'd be able to watch it anyway as I live in Canberra and we do not matter when it comes to the broadcasting of games.  Blaggards.  I expect another frustrating season where you're really only guaranteed of seeing Swans games on the teev - even when they're being played at Manuka Oval.  And yes yes yes, I know if I got pay TV I could see more live games.

Anyway, enough bitching.  As per the system last year, winners emboldenedened:

Richmond Tigers v Carlton Blues - I'd like to tip Richmond, truly I would, and I must admit I'm not sure about Carlton blooding four new players tonight, but I think they've just got the edge here.  And it's not like Tigers fans aren't used to disappointment, is it? 

Hawthorn Hawks v Geelong Cats - Geelong.  My they must be pretty pissed off at themselves still for their lacklustre showing in the grand final, mustn't they?  I think they had a better preseason so that plus the crankypants factor should see them win.

Collingwood Magpies v Adelaide Crows - Battle o'the birds.  I can't see Adelaide having a stellar season this year and I think the Magpies are in comparatively better physical condition (though their mental condition should always be regarded as suspect).

Brisbane Lions v West Coast Eagles - Lions to prevail with new vice captain Daniel "The Comedian" Merrett (having now dropped the moniker of "Not Roger") and another crappy season for the Eagles - you can probably start appending the phrase "out of sorts" as a prefix already - to begin.

St Kilda Saints v Sydney Swans - Must be the prettiest team next to Hawthorn, the Saints, and I think they'll have it over the Swans.  I still rate Paul Roos as a coach though.

Melbourne Demons v North Melbourne - it has recently been raised with me that I too readily discounted North Melbourne which, you know, is fair 'nuff.  Easy tip this one barring a Freo-esque disaster.

[made it to 354 words before teasing Fremantle, a new record]

And here's hoping that 2009 is the season that the Dees start winning back a little respect.

Port Adelaide Power v Essendon Bombers - With respect to Peter McC, the Group's resident Bombers fan, while the Power don't usually enjoy the same sort of home advantage as other teams due to a support base with a proportion that can't really afford the tickets (and let's face it, that situation probably won't improve anytime soon), I just think they have the better list starting the season and will win on Sunday arvo.

Fremantle Dockers v Western Bulldogs - While it's a big trip over to Subiaco the Doggies have won comfortably there before. While I haven't read much about either side I expect that the Bulldogs will have the better game plan of the two teams and should come away with the win.

Would be lovely to start the season with a perfect 8 but we'll see.  Enjoy your footy this weekend - brief match reports to the group (*cough* davemonkey and co. *cough*) are welcomed.  Cheers.

Aaaaand we're back.  Less than a week to go now before Richmond take on Carlton for the start of the 2009 AFL season.  Can't wait.  Bought The Boy his first footy last week (a Brisbane Lions themed one in an attempt to keep my wife's Essendon subterfuge at bay) and we're already working on handball skills. 

So.  Some quick questions for the Vox group:

• Do you want the weekly round preview with tips?
• Would you like links to "articles of interest"?
• Would you like to read more analytical sort of stuff?
• Do the Fremantle Dockers cause you as much week-in week-out consternation as they do for me?

That last one was a trick question of course, as naturally everyone shakes their fist at those god-damned Dockers as much as I do (especially their fans).

I'll try to do the weekly tips preview but may not be able to make it every week, what with essays for my post-grad studies, a demanding job and the minor matter of a pending child being born about two thirds of the way through the season.  So, you know, other contributions are welcomed.

The AFL website has a quick analysis of the state of play and prospects for the all the teams which is worth reading.  I'm going to stick my neck out a little, having only really flicked through the linked article for a few of the clubs, and give a top eight prediction:

1. Geelong - still strong, and probably a little grumpier this year;
2. Western Bulldogs - have a good list and an easy-ish run into the finals;
3. Hawthorn - the reigning premiers have to be considered a top four certainty;
4. Collingwood - pressure's probably more on Malthouse and McGuire than the players, but they have a decent list and this year they have to make it count;
5. St Kilda - still in the mix, but won't lift the trophy to end a 42 year drought;
6. Richmond - yes, no ninth for the Tigers this year.  Apparently they picked up some Cousins bloke who's alright on the park;
7. Carlton - Have to be there if they can fix their defence up this season.  Hard call putting them at 7 instead of 8 or 9 but I think they have the ability to deserve their place here;
8. Brisbane - but really only because I'd like to see Voss get some minor success this season, and I'm therefore inclined to rate them higher than Port Adelaide or Sydney who are probably more likely to be here come September.  The Lions need their lower tier players to fire up or they are gone, gone, gone.

Happy to hear opposing arguments on this - write up your own final eight predictions and post them to the group.  Looking forward to a great season of footy. 

So it's the penultimate round, this one, and you can already feel the allure (?) of finals football in the air.  I'm going to keep this one quick as thanks to a disastrous hardware issue (or issues, as the pc's still with the guy) I'm typing this up from a terminal at a public library.  That's how much I care about this, people, that's how much I care.

Some interesting results last week with Richmond springing a massive surprise over Hawthorn and Brisbane getting up over the Western Bulldogs (just as I suspected though, foolishly, didn't tip).  So this week's predictions are again bolded for your careful and considered dissertation:

Western Bulldogs v Essendon;

Richmond v Fremantle;

Port Adelaide v Melbourne;

Brisbane v Carlton;

Collingwood v Sydney (but can the Swans shake the hold the Magpies have had over them?);

Geelong v Kangaroos;

St Kilda v Adelaide; and

West Coast v Hawthorn.

Hope you enjoy your footy this weekend, aveagoodone.

I'll keep this short as I've had a terribly busy day (which I may talk about later).  This week I'm sticking my neck out and tipping all the away teams.  I think Brisbane are a slight chance against the Western Bulldogs, and that Carlton can beat North Melbourne, but their opponents are simply likely to be too strong.  Same goes for Freo against the Saints.  May well change my mind tomorrow though I guess.  So here are my tips for this round in bold font:

Port Adelaide v Collingwood;

Essendon v Adelaide;

Melbourne v West Coast;

Brisbane v Western Bulldogs;

Sydney v Geelong;

Richmond v Hawthorn;

Carlton v North Melbourne; and

Fremantle v St Kilda.

Four more rounds to go and I'm four points behind the leaders in the comps I'm in, so I'm thinking I'm out of touch for the season now unless I manage to pick some major upsets - and I can't really see that happening.  Oh well.  Maybe next year.  Into it as I'd like to keep this quick:

Melbourne v Geelong:  This is the game meant to mark the heritage of our indigenous sport (Round 19 is labelled the "Tom Wills" round after a key founder of the sport) but boy, it doesn't look at all enthralling.  Probably a good thing it's not being broadcast tonight thanks to the Olympics.  Merely a question of how much Geelong are going to win by.

Carlton v Port Adelaide:  Shame Carlton didn't get up against Adelaide last week (not least 'cos I tipped them to win) but they'll have an easier time of things against the Power in Melbourne.  Carlton to win.

Hawthorn v Brisbane Lions:  I'm hoping this game will be broadcast on ABC radio so I can catch it while mucking about in the garden tomorrow arvo.  Brisbane are in a bit of trouble aren't they?  And the Hawks seem to like playing in Tasmania (must admit I have a soft spot for Launceston, beautiful place).  Limited ruck options are not helping Brisbane at the moment so I think Hawthorn will get the win here.

Collingwood v St Kilda:  Another year, another season wasted by the Magpies.  I can't help thinking they'll be considering coaching options soon as Malthouse isn't getting the best out of his crew (take a look at this from AFL blog Best Clubman for a hard critique).  I reckon the Saints will add to their woes tomorrow night at the 'G.

Sydney v Fremantle:  Well, Freo have been in a bit of a "purple patch" with three wins in a row, but they were against the crappier teams in the comp in the form of Melbourne, Port and West Coast.  Can't see them getting over Sydney, who have two key players in Goodes and Barry returning this weekend. 

Kangaroos v Western Bulldogs:  Good win by the Roos last week against Brisbane, and I think they're likely to upset the Bulldogs after their drawn match earlier in the season.  It's a bit of a roughie but that's tipping.

Adelaide v Richmond:  I'd like to tip Richmond here, really I would, but I just can't see them overcoming the Crows at home.  Plus I read somewhere that the Crows have won 10 out of their past 11 enounters with the Tigers, and I just can't see Richmond having the team to overcome that stat - yet.  Will be interesting to see how the Tigers go next season.

West Coast v Essendon:  I just did a quick bit of YouTubing and found the absolute beauty of a mark that Essendon's Matthew Lloyd took last weekend, it's inserted into this post below.  Can't see the Eagles overcoming the Bombers who have really seemed to get better and better as the season's gone on.  Credit where credit's due, despite my antipathy towards them.  Still, I hope they don't make the eight ahead of Brisbane or anything. 

Here's the vid, enjoy your footy this weekend everyone.

Well, if you managed to get five out of eight last week then you were doing pretty well.  I know a guy who tipped seven by virtue of the fact that he is now aiming to win the wooden spoon (thereby winning his $25 entry fee back) and got the upsets right.  Time I started taking some risks to win with just this round and four more remaining, let's have a look at what's on:

Collingwood v Hawthorn:  The Hawks managed to push Geelong last week though they ultimately lost in what I believe was a most entertaining game.  The Magpies are in a bit of trouble - no different to previous seasons, really - with a bit of criticism around the place about their match day strategy and slow midfield.  Shane Crawford with his dodgy knees will be playing to be one game away from his 300th game and all-important free tickets to future grand finals, and the Hawks don't appear to have any other major personnel concerns.  I think Hawthorn will win here but not by a bagful of goals or anything.

Essendon v Melbourne:  The Bombers proved me wrong last week so I've learned my lesson and will tip them to beat the Demons, though it's an easy choice to make.

Adelaide v Carlton:  A very good win by Carlton over the Western Bulldogs last Sunday evening, and even though Adelaide have one of the best coaches in the comp in Neil Henry (not to mention their poor record against the Crows having lost their past four matches against them), I think they should be able to build a bit of momentum from the win and Fev finally re-signing to prevail.  Carlton by a couple of goals.  A risky tip but I have to make it.

Geelong v Richmond:  The Tigers have a bit of confidence about them at the moment but playing the Cats will provide them with the opportunity to realise just what it takes to be a premiership team.  Cats by lots of goals.

Kangaroos v Brisbane:  This will be the last time the Roos play up at the Gold Coast until the new team arrives from 2011.  Back in Round 11 I wrote that 

...the last five rounds of the season see [the Lions] play the Kangaroos, Hawthorn, Bulldogs, Carlton and Sydney - all of which are eminently losable games and could cost the Lions momentum going into the finals. 

which makes this a very important game for Brisbane after some less-than-impressive recent games against Essendon and Richmond.  Brisbane should win here though to get things back on track.  Interesting to see Tim Notting and Robert Copeland have been dropped for the match - are there any comments about this from regular Lions watchers?

Western Bulldogs v Sydney:  This game's the last one in Canberra for the season, and unfortunately I won't be able to see it as I've got to look after The Boy while K gets on with study.  Sydney have some injury worries and I suspect the Bulldogs will be fired up for a win.  A loss here will put Sydney's no. 4 spot on the ladder in real strife, but I don't think such motivation will be enough to see them over the line.  Footscray to win at the lovely surrounds of Manuka Oval (seriously, it's a good spot to watch a game).

St Kilda v Port Adelaide:  Saints should be unhappy about their loss to the Eagles, from what I heard it seemed that they just weren't in the right headspace or something.  Port manage to trundle along with the occasional win, but playing in Melbourne you'd have to think that the Saints are the better option.

Fremantle v West Coast:  Well, at least Freo came through for me last week.  They lift a gear when they play the Eagles and I reckon they'll get another win for the season at Subiaco this Sunday.

That's it for this week, good luck with your tipping and I hope you enjoy your footy.